Senate Candidates Prep for First Debate

By Tim Craig
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, July 10, 2008

RICHMOND With the first debate between Virginia's top U.S. Senate candidates a little more than a week away, Republican candidate James S. Gilmore III might finally get a chance to define his race against Democrat Mark R. Warner on his terms.

The two men, former Virginia governors with drastically different views of each other's records, will slug it out July 19 at the Homestead resort in western Virginia.

Gilmore, known for a combative style, is expected to come out swinging, hoping to pin Warner down on his views on controversial social and foreign policy issues that have been liabilities for Democratic candidates in the traditionally conservative state.

But as the campaign enters its next phase, it's becoming apparent that Warner, not Gilmore, has been playing offense.

Even before Gilmore secured the GOP nomination last month, the Warner campaign dominated the media. Warner has been trying to squeeze the oxygen out of Gilmore's efforts while being quick to fortify his candidacy when it comes to his own weaknesses.

Warner's apparent strike-before-being-struck strategy became apparent May 31, when Gilmore was set to officially receive the Republican nomination at the party's state convention.

Three hours before the delegates began voting whether to nominate Gilmore or state Del. Robert G. Marshall (R-Prince William), Warner's campaign issued a news release announcing that he would be launching his first statewide TV ad.

In the ad, which aired statewide, Warner sought to frame the question of who was the better governor. Apparently convinced he has the Democratic base locked up, Warner also used his opening salvo to widen the gap between Gilmore and some moderate Republicans and independents.

The ad featured testimonials from former state Senate president John H. Chichester, a Republican, and business and civic leaders who credit Warner for closing a budget shortfall while he was governor from 2002 to 2006. The ad implies that Gilmore created the shortfall when he was governor from 1998 to 2002.

Gilmore denies he created a shortfall, but because he has struggled to raise money, he hasn't been able to respond to Warner with an ad of his own. Warner is among the best-funded Democratic candidate in any U.S. Senate race this year. Gilmore, who has not won over the state's business community, is one of the worst-funded GOP Senate candidates running for an open seat.

Two weeks after his first ad aired, Warner struck against Gilmore just as the Republican was shaking off a narrow victory over Marshall at the GOP convention. Marshall, in his first statewide campaign, came within 70 votes of upsetting Gilmore.

After the convention, in mid-June, Gilmore tried to organize a round of free publicity by scheduling a day-long fly-around of Virginia to launch his general election campaign.

But the day before the event, Warner sought to undercut Gilmore's record as governor and raise questions about whether the GOP would unite behind him.

Warner organized a conference call with Chichester and former Republican delegate Vincent F. Callahan of Fairfax County, who had been chairman of the House Appropriations Committee. The two longtime Republicans announced that they were endorsing Warner.

Callahan and Gilmore were allies during the fight several years ago over a car tax, Gilmore's signature issue. But Callahan said Gilmore misled legislators about the costs associated with eliminating the tax. Gilmore denies the charge but didn't have a strategy to diminish Callahan's credibility.

Warner was able to tout the endorsements when he accepted the Democratic nomination at the state party convention last month.

His campaign has also been quick to prevent Gilmore from gaining traction on any single issue.

At the GOP convention, Gilmore made it clear that he was trying to make gas prices a major issue. His proposal to deal with $4-a-gallon gas can be summed up, as he put it, in four words: "Drill here, drill now," a reference to his belief that the United States should drill off Alaska's shore to find energy sources.

Warner responded June 19 with his own energy proposal, which calls for getting tougher with OPEC and beefing up the regulation of investors who speculate in the oil market.

Last week, Warner sought to take the offensive while undercutting Gilmore on terrorism and national security.

Gilmore has said recently that he is better suited to deal with terrorism because he was governor during the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and headed a national commission on homeland security. But Warner held a news conference last week to tout the endorsement of W. Gerald Massengill, a Republican who was the Virginia State Police superintendent Sept. 11.

There were "all kinds of difficult moments where governor Warner stepped up to the plate," said Massengill, who was police superintendent during the first year of Warner's administration.

But Gilmore is a long way from being defeated. And the debate July 19 could be Gilmore's opportunity to begin his offensive.

In the 2006 Senate race, many observers said they thought George Allen, the Republican incumbent, began to lose ground in August, a month after the Homestead debate. But his challenger and the eventual winner, Sen. James Webb (D-Va.), might have had an earlier edge, as he used the debate to start gaining momentum in his campaign.

At the debate, Allen portrayed himself as interested in fighting terrorism, promoting "Virginia values" and cutting taxes.

Webb seized on issues that voters responded to in November -- the war in Iraq, President Bush and the economy -- when Democrats picked up control of both houses of Congress.

Gilmore can hope for a similar opportunity to focus the campaign narrative at this year's debate. His challenge will be to find issues that will set him apart from Warner and resonate with voters in November.

Gilmore could hammer on those themes through the fall, as he has started to do on the issue of drilling for oil, and hope that Warner stumbles.