Varying Estimates

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Lt. Gen. James Dubik, who until last week was in charge of training Iraqi security forces, said yesterday that they would be operational by next summer, the most recent of various assessments over time on the progress of Iraq's forces:

"It's going to take another 12 or 18 months or so till I believe the Iraqi security forces are completely capable of taking over responsibility for their own security; still probably with some level of support from us that will be asked for by the Iraqis."

-- Army Gen. George Casey, October 2006

"[I]n terms of combat troops on the streets, what we're doing here is buying time -- 18 months to 24 months to get the Iraqi security forces to a better state where they can deal with this."

-- Ret. Gen. Jack Keane, December 2006

"The Iraqi Security Forces, particularly the Iraqi police, will be hard pressed in the next 12-18 months to execute significantly increased security responsibilities, and particularly to operate independently against Shia militias with success.''

-- National Intelligence Estimate, March 2007

"[Iraqi security forces] will be unable to fulfill their essential security responsibilities independently over the next 12 to 18 months."

-- Report of the Independent Commission on the Security Forces in Iraq, September 2007

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