One Cannot Choose but Wonder

Having run as a Reform Party candidate, Jesse Ventura was elected governor of Minnesota in November 1998. (By Tom Olmscheid -- Associated Press)

Political junkies everywhere are atwitter with the possibility that former professional wrestler and Minnesota governor (who else in the world could have had those two job descriptions!) Jesse "The Body" Ventura is pondering a return to the political ring.

ABC reported last week that Ventura had decided to run against Sen. Norm Coleman (R) and entertainer Al Franken (D) in the fall, a report the former governor vehemently denied while also making clear he is still weighing a bid and will make a decision this week.

If Ventura does decide to run, can he win? And, if not, whom does he hurt more: Coleman or Franken?

A look at public polling on a potential three-way contest suggests that Ventura would be hard-pressed to win the race but could have a significant impact on the outcome.

A poll conducted in mid-June for KSTP-TV showed Coleman leading with 41 percent, trailed by Franken at 31 percent and Ventura at 23 percent. Without Ventura in the race, Coleman led Franken 52 percent to 40 percent.

Those results suggest that while Ventura remains a known figure to Minnesota voters, some of the shine that came with his stunning victory in the 1998 gubernatorial race wore off during The Body's tempestuous four years in office.

Should Ventura run anyway, he will hurt Franken far more than Coleman, argued Eric Black, a former political reporter with the Minneapolis Star Tribune who now writes for MinnPost.com.

"Most of the group[s] to which Ventura might appeal are groups that are otherwise potential areas of Franken strength," Black wrote in a blog post. He noted that Ventura and Franken are on the same side of the Iraq issue (opposed) and the abortion debate (in favor of a woman's choice), and that a third candidate almost certainly splits the anti-Coleman vote in a way that could allow the incumbent to eke out a victory.

All the questions should be answered Monday night, when Ventura sits down with Larry King on CNN.