Sunday, July 20, 2008

Financial crisis, slowing economy, rising inflation -- what a perfect recipe for a boost in gold prices and shares of gold-related companies.

And the bump has come. In the little more than a week since the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac drama moved center stage, gold has climbed 3.2 percent, to about $958 per troy ounce Friday. Barrick Gold, the world's largest gold producer, has risen 1.2 percent since July 10, when the markets were hit by fears over the mortgage-finance giants. It closed at $47.30 on Friday.

So if the economic picture is darkening and inflation is on the upswing, gold will just keep on going, right? Ned Schmidt, publisher of the newsletter Value View Gold Report, offered a dose of skepticism. The uncertainty over the Fannie and Freddie shake-up does improve the long-term prospects for gold, Schmidt said in a report last week, and he remains firmly bullish on the metal. "That said," he cautioned, "the optimism on gold may be in need of a little dampening."

One measure Schmidt consults is the price of gold relative to the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index. The ratio currently shows the price of gold outpacing the S&P. By Schmidt's calculation, gold at $956 should equate with the S&P at a level of 810, far below its current reading of 1260. The numbers suggest that "gold may be ahead of the realities of the world," Schmidt wrote.

Schmidt lists more than a dozen stocks that have performed well in the past month, including Randgold Resources (GOLD), up 30.3 percent; Kinross (KGC), up 18.3 percent; Barrick (ABX), up 17 percent; and Goldcorp (GG), up 11.5 percent. "On average, the stocks have ceased to be a bargain," he said.

Excessive money is flowing into gold, Schmidt warned. "The current price is extremely overbought during this period of financial panic," he wrote. "Holding and gloating over your profits is appropriate at the present time. Buying should await lower prices or a crack in the price of oil."

-- Steven E. Levingston