In Economic Gloom, Clouds May Part Over Prince William

Consultant Tells Chamber Reasons for Optimism

Real estate consultant Julian Fore said he doesn't have a Ouija board or crystal ball to predict the future.

But by studying the numbers and drawing from more than 30 years of experience as a consultant, Fore told members of the Prince William Regional Chamber of Commerce last week that the future of the region looks promising.

"While things look dire, there are signs the regional economy is a healthy one," said Fore, who does market assessments and fiscal impact studies for corporations, developers and the government through his McLean-based firm, Fore Consulting. "The D.C. region is very resilient despite the fact much of the economy is suffering."

The Washington area is the country's fourth-largest marketplace for housing, retail sales and employment, Fore said. The federal government's presence, skilled labor force and numerous transportation options make the area attractive to home buyers, companies and retail outlets, he said.

"Things may be down, but our not-so-good years are not as bad as in other places," Fore said. "Las Vegas, South Florida and places in the Midwest have it worse than us."

Despite the tough economic times, the region continues to flourish, he said, adding about 28,000 jobs from April 2007 to this April. Another "telling statistic," Fore said, is an unemployment rate that hovers at about 3.5 percent, two percentage points lower than the national average.

And even as the region does well, Northern Virginia remains strongest, Fore said.

The number of vacant office fronts is declining in Northern Virginia, and the area is a top location for retail stores, Fore said. With average household income that's more than $40,000 above the national average, people have additional money to spend.

"Retailers are attracted here because they make more money," Fore said, adding that people in Northern Virginia spend 36 percent of their income on retail items. "Even though things look discouraging now, the forecast suggests there are numerous opportunities for retail in Northern Virginia."

Prince William County, in particular, has a host of retail and growth opportunities, Fore said. The Prince William area is attractive because of its accessibility to two transportation corridors -- Interstates 95 and 66 -- and its proximity to major employment centers.

Fore said that Gainesville is an up-and-coming part of the county and that places around Fort Belvoir and Marine Corps Base Quantico are also about to get a surge of people as the base realignment and closure proceedings send people south of the District.

"If you look at Gainesville, much of what is there didn't exist in the 1990s," Fore said. "The character changed dramatically . . . and it provides a stunning opportunity to draw high-end users."