Consultant Tells Chamber Reasons for Optimism
By Jennifer Buske
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, July 20, 2008
Real estate consultant Julian Fore said he doesn't have a Ouija board or crystal ball to predict the future.
But by studying the numbers and drawing from more than 30 years of experience as a consultant, Fore told members of the Prince William Regional Chamber of Commerce last week that the future of the region looks promising.
"While things look dire, there are signs the regional economy is a healthy one," said Fore, who does market assessments and fiscal impact studies for corporations, developers and the government through his McLean-based firm, Fore Consulting. "The D.C. region is very resilient despite the fact much of the economy is suffering."
The Washington area is the country's fourth-largest marketplace for housing, retail sales and employment, Fore said. The federal government's presence, skilled labor force and numerous transportation options make the area attractive to home buyers, companies and retail outlets, he said.
"Things may be down, but our not-so-good years are not as bad as in other places," Fore said. "Las Vegas, South Florida and places in the Midwest have it worse than us."
Despite the tough economic times, the region continues to flourish, he said, adding about 28,000 jobs from April 2007 to this April. Another "telling statistic," Fore said, is an unemployment rate that hovers at about 3.5 percent, two percentage points lower than the national average.
And even as the region does well, Northern Virginia remains strongest, Fore said.
The number of vacant office fronts is declining in Northern Virginia, and the area is a top location for retail stores, Fore said. With average household income that's more than $40,000 above the national average, people have additional money to spend.
"Retailers are attracted here because they make more money," Fore said, adding that people in Northern Virginia spend 36 percent of their income on retail items. "Even though things look discouraging now, the forecast suggests there are numerous opportunities for retail in Northern Virginia."
Prince William County, in particular, has a host of retail and growth opportunities, Fore said. The Prince William area is attractive because of its accessibility to two transportation corridors -- Interstates 95 and 66 -- and its proximity to major employment centers.
Fore said that Gainesville is an up-and-coming part of the county and that places around Fort Belvoir and Marine Corps Base Quantico are also about to get a surge of people as the base realignment and closure proceedings send people south of the District.
"If you look at Gainesville, much of what is there didn't exist in the 1990s," Fore said. "The character changed dramatically . . . and it provides a stunning opportunity to draw high-end users."
Fore said Gainesville has the chance to latch onto mass transit, including nearby rail lines. It is also a good place for a town center development, he said. Such mixed-use, "walkable" communities will be popping up throughout the country, he said.
"I would absolutely love to see town centers here," said Karen Ondayko, one of the roughly 150 chamber members who heard Fore speak Wednesday. "They bring that community feeling and make you not want to get in your car to go to Tysons or Alexandria. I think they would help keep people in the area."
Gainesville is also on the radar screen because it has a community for active older adults, which is another type of development gaining attention as people look to settle rather than flee the area after retirement, Fore said.
Although there is no way to predict when the economy will turn around, Fore said, Prince William might already be bouncing back, as statistics show home sales are beginning to rise. Data from the Metropolitan Regional Information Systems show 834 sales in June, an 83 percent jump from the 456 units sold in June 2007. In Manassas, home sales surged 178 percent, with 37 units sold in June 2007 and 103 units sold this June.
"I think Julian [Fore] brings some good news," said Laurie Wieder, president of the Prince William Regional Chamber. "We have a lot of opportunities here."
Because no one can predict the timing of the turnaround, Fore said, it is important that leaders plan now for development and make sure adequate infrastructure is in place.
Hard times, he said, will not last forever.
"The market goes through cycles, and usually for every 10-year cycle, you get three bad years," Fore said. "Cycles tend to work themselves through, and we will hopefully return to some sense of normalcy soon."
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