@ MobileBeat: Bang or Bust?

Good luck getting anyone on this panel to say mobile is heading toward a bust, but you have to give the organizers props for at least raising the question. The MobileBeat 2008 conference hasn't strayed much from the to-be-expected hype surrounding the recent launch of the iPhone 3G and App Store, but there was some good debate surrounding the potential of new platforms entering the fray and what, if anything, new things they bring to the mobile scene.

What's different about these new platforms? It's simple and nothing you haven't heard before ? traffic. Loopt CEO and co-founder Sam Altman said iPhone users use Loopt at a rate 47 times higher than the average user. "I've heard that from every single person that's built an application for the iPhone." Rich Miner, group manager of mobile and the Android platform at Google ( NSDQ: GOOG), said it's more of a confluence of great minds rather than a seismic shift. Comparing mobile phone capabilities to the PC circa 2002 -2003, he said the biggest change is that software developers are playing a bigger role in the space than ever before. "What the iPhone store does is it gives developers control of their own destiny ? It really comes down to building the best-in-class application." Matt Murphy, partner at Kleiner Perkins Caulfield Byers and head of their "iFund" investment pool for the iPhone, said early results from the App Store prove the potential growth opportunity. In just 10 days more applications were downloaded for the iPhone than what a carrier will typically see in a month from wallpaper and ringtone sales, he said.

So what can Android do that the iPhone can't? Surprisingly, Miner declined to head into this one and handed it off to Altman who said location-based services and data pushing work much better on Android for starters.

Android's economic model:"It's certainly better if we can have a single marketplace," Miner said, but they haven't ironed out the details yet.

Android SDK: Miner said Google's working on a refresh of the Android SDK and that it's still on target to release its first device later this year.

Finally, on scale versus features: Murphy said life's too short to try to develop an application for 200-plus devices. It's much easier to develop for one feature-rich device or platform and hedge your bets there.

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