Ich Bin Ein Obama

"If he can seal the deal with the public, then he's likely to win--and it could be a very substantial victory. If he can't seal the deal, then he may very well lose -- and if things really go south and he loses the center badly to McCain, it could be a bigger defeat than most people can fathom at the moment.

"Many pundits, especially those on the left, have been confounded by the fact that for all the money, the enthusiasm, and the favorable political dynamics this year, Obama isn't further ahead in the polls. To the contrary, Obama's small but steady lead over McCain is evidence that he remains in a somewhat precarious position, and that some voters remain apprehensive or unsure about his candidacy."

Which is hardly surprising, given his recent arrival on the national scene.

Joe Klein sees a danger sign for the Democrat:

"Lots of speculation on the web, and in whispering circles, about why Obama's foreign trip--a slam-dunk success substantively and in photo-op terms (Obama laughing with Petraeus in the helicopter was the best)--hasn't resulted in a polling bump. The emerging conventional wisdom seems to be that the trip is a bit too grand, too . . . presumptuous and voters are wary of that. (And presumption, of course, always comes with the subterranean tinge of racism.) Maybe so.

"But I have another theory. People may be thinking, what on earth is Obama doing over there when we have so many problems back home? Why isn't he talking about the economy? No doubt, the Obama staff figured they needed this week abroad to establish the image of Obama as a potential commander-in-chief . . . and, no doubt, he will turn to the economy--a Democratic strength, according to the polls--when he gets home. But I wouldn't be surprised if Obama is paying a price for vamping about overseas while banks are cratering, gas prices soar and people are getting really, really nervous about their futures."

Does the McCain camp have a legitimate beef about the coverage? The New Republic's Michelle Cottle thinks the carping is pointless:

"My assumption is that McCain and his team are being shameless whiners about the media being more in love with Obama than with them in part because they're thinking it will help them with their base. (By God, if The New York Times hates him, he must be a good guy!)

"But since the media still play a key role in shaping the campaign narrative, presumably Team McCain would like to shame journalists into retooling their coverage and is thinking: Why not? It worked for Hillary! . . .

"But there seem to be a couple of differences here that could prove problematic for McCain:

"For starters, the media's abashed, late-in-the-game stab at rebalancing their coverage in the Hillary-Obama battle didn't result in any nicer press for Hillary. It simply prompted journalists to more closely scrutinize Obama and spotlight anything that smacked of a controversy, gaffe, or inconsistency. These days, however, Obama's every word and deed are already being deconstructed--far more so than McCain's. So surely Team McCain isn't suggesting that their guy is receiving harsher coverage. As for the (valid) complaint that Obama is the bigger media--not to mention cultural--phenom, I'm not sure what McCain expects media types to do about that: It was one thing for Hillary to gig journalists into paying more attention to the emerging rock star in this race. It seems unlikely McCain will shame the media into paying less attention to that now-even-bigger star . . .

"I'm not sure the best way for McCain to win more lovin' from journalists is to publicly mock, abuse, and insult them."

What? Just because he calls us "little jerks"?

And the latest on the Bob Novak accident: We hear from the 86-year-old homeless pedestrian who was hit.