For Obama, Hurdles in Expanding Black Vote

Many political scientists contend that, with exceptions in Virginia and Florida, the Democrats' deficit in the South is too big for Obama to overcome even with a huge increase in black turnout, unless he can also improve on the performance of past Democrats among white Southerners. While Obama is likely to do well among younger whites, they say, the prospect of a surge in black turnout may stoke higher turnout among whites for Sen. John McCain, his Republican rival.

Thomas F. Schaller, a political scientist at the University of Maryland Baltimore County, said that it makes sense for Obama to invest some of his considerable resources in the South to force McCain to defend it, but that he sees little hope of victories there. "There's going to be a record number of African Americans turning out," he said. "But the question is whether it will make any difference in these states where Republicans have been winning by double-digit margins."

Steve Hildebrand, Obama's deputy campaign manager, rejects this analysis, saying the political climate is so changed since 2004 that past results are not relevant. At the least, Obama's voter drive will help Democratic candidates down the ballot, now and in the future. And Hildebrand dismissed the prospect of a white counterreaction to an increase in black voters.

But Rep. Jim Marshall, a conservative Democrat whose district includes Macon, appears less confident. He has declined to endorse Obama, and his chief of staff, John Kirincich, was skittish about discussing the benefits that the candidate's push to turn out more black voters would hold for Marshall, who barely won reelection in 2006 and faces another challenge.

Marshall "is not really interested in commenting on the presidential race. It's not his ballgame," Kirincich said. Pressed, he said: "We will accept more people voting for him from [wherever] they come."

Whatever the broader ramifications, they seem distant on the ground. In Columbus, 90 miles west of Macon, several volunteers were recently canvassing a housing project that looks across the Chattahoochee River at Alabama.

Nikasha Wells, 28, a Florida lawyer who took a leave to volunteer, was glad to meet Linda Cross, who was not only registered but also willing to make calls for Obama. Cross, 49, a Wal-Mart employee, said she always votes because of her family's ties to the civil rights movement -- marchers had camped on their land near Selma, Ala.

But next door, Renea Thomas, 27, a janitor and mother of four, was puzzled when Wells asked her to register to vote. "To who?" she said. She has never voted. "I just never thought about it," she said.

Agiesta reported from Washington.