Both Presidential Campaigns Make It Clear That Florida Matters

Florida voters are concerned about foreclosures, as is much of the rest of the nation. (By Joe Raedle -- Getty Images)

"When it comes to the economy, it's night and day," compared with 2000 and 2004, said Mark Bubriski, Obama's Florida campaign spokesman.

Obama has blanketed the state with television ads since becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee, spending more money here than in any other state, according to the Wisconsin Advertising Project at the University of Wisconsin at Madison that tracks candidate media spending. Obama has spent more than $5 million since June 3 on television advertisements, airing more than 7,000 ads, the group estimates.

McCain has not been on the air in Florida since the January primary, when he spent about $1.5 million.

Equally striking is where Obama spent the money. He aired more ads in Pensacola -- the conservative Panhandle city where Navy pilots, including McCain, are trained -- than in Miami. Democrats in 2000 and 2004 ceded the Panhandle to Republicans, not airing any ads there, said the advertising project's director, Ken Goldstein.

"I never understood that," Goldstein said. "Those are areas that are going to go Republican, but it's not like the electoral college. Every African American voter you bring out in the Panhandle offsets a Cuban voter in Miami" likely to vote Republican.

McCain has gambled that, for now, he could spend his money in other states, even though recent polls show a dead heat and Florida is crucial to his electoral strategy.

Even Democrats concede McCain has advantages in Florida. He will have appeal with veterans and elderly voters, a huge bloc in Florida that Obama had difficulty with nationwide against Clinton.

Another bloc with whom McCain could make inroads comprises Jewish voters. Although recent national polling suggests Obama is taking 60 percent of Jewish support, that is well below what previous Democrats have received. The popularity of Republican Gov. Charlie Crist, who is mentioned as a vice presidential possibility for McCain, will also likely help McCain with independents and some Democrats.

"We're in a good place in Florida, but it is one of those states you've got to work at to win," a McCain campaign strategist said. "It has trended in the right direction for us, both at the presidential and state level." Crist was elected in a bad year for Republicans, and only one statewide election official in state government is a Democrat. The strategist added that, "Democrats who win in Florida are far more centrist than Barack Obama."

But Democrats believe those good feelings will fade along with the economy. Obama has also sought to exploit local issues -- and McCain's positions -- against him. A national catastrophic homeowners insurance fund may not sound sexy, but in Florida it resonates in both parties. The first questioner at an Obama town hall meeting in St. Petersburg on Friday asked his position on such a fund, making note that homeowners insurance in the state is skyrocketing. Obama is for it. McCain is against it.

McCain also voted against a major water resources law that he denounced as pork-barrel waste. But inside that barrel was $2 billion in authorized funding to restore the Everglades, funding secured by Democratic lawmakers and sought by Crist.

And as in other states, Democrats appear to have an enthusiasm edge. From Jan. 1 to June 30, the Democratic Party registered 196,110 new voters, compared with 105,927 newly registered Republicans.

To the state's elected Republicans, all that is hype, reminiscent of Kerry's promises of revenge for the debacle of 2000. House Republican Conference Chairman Adam Putnam, who represents a piece of Central Florida where Obama campaigned Friday, even ventured that the state isn't even in play.

"Sure, there are college towns and some areas where he will do very well, but it does not appear he will do significantly better than base Democratic vote in Florida," Putnam said with a shrug. "McCain is doing better at this point than Bush was doing in 2004."