Reliably GOP State Is Up for Grabs

As volunteer-driven as the campaign is, though, Obama's state leadership in Richmond is asserting closer oversight over voter outreach than did recent Democratic presidential campaigns, which often found themselves duplicating the efforts of those working on their behalf. It plugs all voter contacts into a big database and often deploys a staff member to monitor even small-scale events.

For the past month, much of the Obama campaign's focus has been on registering voters. Virginia has recorded 147,000 new registrations this year -- it does not register by party -- and the campaign's goal is 150,000 more. It estimates that if 80 percent of those new registrants are for Obama, and that if 75 percent show up at the polls, that will mean a gain of more than 60,000 votes -- or an extra 1.75 percent, assuming turnout is around 3.5 million.

To further close the gap, the campaign is targeting what it calls "sporadic" Democrats -- potential supporters who missed at least one recent statewide race and may need a nudge to turn out for Obama -- plus moderate Republicans and independents who may be tempted to cross over. To reach this second group, the campaign is using "micro-targeting" techniques popularized by the 2004 Bush campaign, divining voters' leanings through consumer preferences or other hints.

"For a race that's going to be as close as this is, it will take a lot of pieces of the puzzle for us to add to be successful," said Virginia campaign director Mitch Stewart, a South Dakota native who helped run Obama's primary campaigns in states including Iowa and Indiana.

For the McCain campaign, the challenge is holding on to as much of Bush's 2004 advantage as possible, particularly by trying to win back voters who favored the president but also voted for Warner, Kaine or Webb. It is being undertaken with a ground operation more limited in scope and more hierarchical than Obama's. The campaign, which as elsewhere is working in close concert with the Republican National Committee, has opened six offices statewide, with three more on the way, on the theory that Obama's greater visibility is mostly for show and not worth the cost to match.

Its volunteer efforts are directed out of campaign headquarters and are organized into clearly delineated coalitions, such as veterans, sportsmen, social conservatives and young Republicans. On weekday evenings, 30 or so people from one of the groups take over the phones in McCain's offices in Crystal City, where both his national and Virginia headquarters are based.

"We run a very disciplined, methodical, structured organization," said Trey Walker, McCain's Mid-Atlantic director. "We are doing exactly what Republican campaigns have done in the past."

What is different, Walker said, is that because Virginia has become a haven for Republicans, the party does not have close to the presidential-campaign structure that it has in standard swing states such as Ohio, where "all they have to do is add water every four years."

"We've got to get to a level of organization that really hasn't been done before here," he said.

J. Kenneth Klinge, a Republican strategist in Fairfax County, said he is encouraged to see his party trying to rebuild its grass roots. What worries him is Obama's effort to register new voters.

"It is no doubt they are going to register anything that can walk, talk and chew gum at the same time, so that will give them an advantage," he said. "Anyone who they have registered, they will then go grab them by the back of the scruff and take them out to vote."

The lines of engagement are clear across the state's highly variegated landscape. To win, Obama must rack up big numbers in populous Northern Virginia, which has become increasingly Democratic as it has boomed over the past decade.