Reliably GOP State Is Up for Grabs

In 2004, John F. Kerry managed to win Fairfax County, where one in seven Virginians lives. Obama wants to increase his margins there and in the Democratic strongholds of Arlington and Alexandria, while also claiming the outer suburbs of Loudoun and Prince William counties, which Webb and Kaine won but Kerry lost. Obama swept the region in the state's primary.

Republicans are not ceding the region. The national party has paired Walker with Nick Meads, the former campaign manager for Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.), who will be helpful in identifying Republican-leaning voters in Northern Virginia. Del. David Albo (R) said that his southern Fairfax district still leans Republican and that McCain can carry it, which would make it hard for Obama to reach 60 percent in the county, as Kaine and Webb did.

Greg Werkheiser, a Democratic activist who ran against Albo in 2005 and helps head up Obama's efforts in that part of Fairfax, counters that the district is solidly behind the Democrat.

"I would say eight in 10 doors we go to are either strong, self-identified Democrats who are for Obama or frustrated moderate Republicans who don't believe McCain represents change from Bush," he said.

Obama will also seek to win big in Richmond and try to split the vote in its suburbs, which Kaine did in 2005. Though Bush won Chesterfield County with 63 percent of the vote in 2004, the county ran out of ballots during February's Democratic primary because so many voters turned out.

Obama also must carry Hampton Roads, the heavily populated and politically diverse area around Norfolk and Newport News that is dominated by African Americans, military personnel and religious conservatives.

The Obama campaign is optimistic, saying it will capitalize not only on high black turnout but also on military families disaffected with the war in Iraq. "If you're a military family, you might just want to support the one who is going to bring your families home," said Rep. Bobby Scott (D), who represents the area.

Democratic strategist Dave "Mudcat" Saunders, a Roanoke native, doubts Obama's chances in Hampton Roads, saying he will instead need to pick up votes in the rural Southside, southwest Virginia and the Shenandoah Valley, a strategy that propelled Warner in 2001. But while Obama can count on high black turnout in Southside, he fared poorly in the primary in Appalachian areas.

Added to this complex landscape are two wild cards. Democrats are hoping that Obama will benefit from the Senate race of Warner, who is heavily favored to beat former governor Jim Gilmore.

"This is a unique situation, where there is both an up-ticket effect and a down-ticket effect," Kaine said. "The Obama effort on turnout is going to have a positive effect . . . that will help Mark, and I also think Mark will perform so well and organize so strongly in some traditionally Republican parts of the state that that will help [Obama]."

Then there is the possibility of a candidate picking a Virginian as his running mate. Kaine is believed to be on Obama's short list, and Rep. Eric Cantor (R) has emerged as a possibility for McCain.

"I suspect most Virginians kind of like the notion that a Virginian can be in key leadership nationally," Kaine said. "How that translates into any effect on Election Day, I don't know."