In Iraq, Regional Politics Heats Up

"They have lost the trust of the people and their base in those areas," said Alusi, the independent Sunni legislator. "They are very nervous."

In recent weeks, the province has seen attacks on Iraqi Islamic Party offices and officials, as well as those targeting Awakening leaders, providing a glimpse of what could unfold as elections near.

In Shiite areas, nationalism is the new mantra as leaders of Iraq's majority community compete to promote themselves as representatives of all Iraqis. Shiite politicians are looking beyond the provincial elections; national elections are scheduled for December 2009.

Last August, Sadr, the Shiite cleric and populist leader, ordered his Mahdi Army to observe a unilateral cease-fire, and this year he ordered most of the militia to renounce violence and instead provide social services.

The cease-fire is widely viewed as a key reason for the drop in violence, but tensions have risen among Shiite groups. Iraqi government forces, whose senior commanders are loyal to Sadr's Shiite rivals, have launched numerous crackdowns against the Mahdi Army, prompting accusations from Sadrists that Maliki and other Shiite parties in the government were trying to weaken them before elections.

Some observers say the Sadrist movement and other militant groups turned to politics as a survival mechanism. "People who were using violence have been hit pretty hard," said Kurdish lawmaker Mahmoud Othman.

But others believe that Sadr's refusal to fight is part of a calculated strategy to regain popularity and reemerge with even greater power. In the last election, many of his followers boycotted the vote. "In past years, these parties used sectarian strategies," said Nadim Jabiri, head of the ultra-religious Fadhila Party. "Now, it's about nationalist agendas."

The Sadrists' main rival, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, an influential political party in Maliki's coalition, is spending millions to build mosques and schools and care for orphans. The Sadrists are maintaining public graveyards and providing aid to displaced families.

In the southern city of Basra, tensions among rival Shiite factions are "going to possibly entail Shiite-on-Shiite violence as we get into electoral politics," a senior U.S. Embassy official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told reporters in a briefing last month.

For months now, Kurdish groups have competed in the political realm to further their interests. Their opposition to Iraq's central government controlling Iraq's oil revenues has helped block the passage of a national hydrocarbons law, viewed as vital to reconciliation.

Last month, Kurdish lawmakers boycotted a vote that called for allocating equal numbers of provincial council seats among Kirkuk's three main ethnic communities -- Kurdish, Arab and Turkmen. The legislation setting rules for the provincial elections was approved by parliament and then vetoed by President Jalal Talabani, an ethnic Kurd.

The Kurds want the city to become part of the mostly autonomous Kurdish region, but their rivals fear they will be disenfranchised under Kurdish rule and want Kirkuk to remain under central government control.