Race Is In Holding Pattern For Now

But After the Games Come the Conventions

The opening round of the general-election campaign between Barack Obama and John McCain has produced memorable images, negative ads, snarling e-mails and pointed exchanges over war, the economy and energy. What it has not done is begin to resolve questions among voters that both candidates must address to win in November.

Amid a profusion of polls and a war of words and television commercials, the underlying dynamics of the election appear little changed in the two months since the primaries ended. Democrat Obama still faces reservations among voters about his background and readiness. Republican McCain still faces questions about whether he has a governing vision that represents a clear break from the policies of President Bush.

With the opening of the Olympic Games on Friday, the campaign has entered a two-week doldrums. But once the Beijing Games are over, Obama and McCain will retake center stage. In rapid succession, they will announce running mates, choreograph their nominating conventions and deliver acceptance speeches to what are likely to be the largest audiences they will reach until the fall debates.

Those events will dwarf what has happened to date. But they will play out against the backdrop of preliminaries that, in the estimation of the two campaigns, have positioned their candidates well for the real battle ahead.

McCain advisers believe they effectively blunted any boost Obama may have gained from his overseas trip, seized an advantage on the debate over energy policy and have begun to restore the "maverick" appeal that distinguishes their candidate from Bush. They also say they have corrected many of the operational weaknesses that plagued their campaign earlier in the summer and drew sharp criticism from others in the Republican Party.

"We are on offense on the most important domestic issue before the country, which is the energy crisis," Steve Schmidt, who runs the campaign's day-to-day operations, said in an interview. "We have blunted Obama's momentum both nationally and in the key states, where we're ahead, even or just slightly behind in a horrific political year."

Obama advisers think that they have laid the foundation for a fall campaign in which voters will gradually gain confidence in their candidate's capacity to serve as president. They also believe they have pinned the Bush label on McCain and enjoy a significant advantage in the intensity of their support, something they think will translate into bigger turnout in battleground states.

David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, said his team is acutely focused on two elemental objectives: winning the battle for swing voters and winning the battle over turnout. "The most underappreciated dynamic of the race is the intensity advantage," he said. "That's why George Bush won in 2004. . . . They had an intensity gap, and we have it now."

Over the past month, polls have suggested a fluctuating race, with Obama leading at one point by as much as eight or nine points, losing virtually all of it to McCain after returning from overseas and then again pulling ahead. The past month also has been notable for the intensity of the engagement between the two campaigns.

But experienced political strategists say what comes next will be far more important in determining the outcome in November than anything that has happened to date. They heavily discount any supposed movement in the polls, saying it has little relevance, and are convinced that most persuadable voters are paying scant attention to the daily dialogue.

"Beware the polls," said Democratic pollster Mark Mellman. "People are very mediocre predictors of their own behavior. What they tell you in June and July will not necessarily comport well with what they do in November."

Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for Bush's 2004 reelection campaign and now an independent analyst, said little has changed over the summer, despite Obama's overseas trip, an array of television ads and extensive cable news coverage of the race.