Inflation Climbs to 17-Year High
Friday, August 15, 2008
Americans paid more last month not only for gas and food but also for a variety of goods and services, including clothes, shoes, hotels and air travel, as inflation unexpectedly jumped to a 17-year high.
The consumer price index climbed 0.8 percent in July, the Labor Department said yesterday, twice as much as Wall Street anticipated. It was the third straight month of high inflation, and the 5.6 percent year-over-year change was the highest since January 1991, when the economy was in recession.
The government data showed that companies, which have been struggling all year with fast-rising prices for oil and other raw materials they need to manufacture and transport their goods, are increasingly passing the higher costs on to consumers.
"There appears to be a shift in the willingness of firms to raise prices," said Dean Maki, chief economist with Barclays Capital. "Costs are rising so rapidly that many businesses have no choice but to pass along price increases."
J.M. Smucker has raised prices on jams and other cooking supplies. Procter & Gamble has increased the cost of detergent, pet food and razors.
But the inflation report did not spook the market. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 82.97 points, or 0.72 percent, closing at 11,615.93. Other stock indicators were also up.
Economists said the inflation data were unlikely to change attitudes at the Federal Reserve, which has expected oil and food inflation to spill over into other goods. "With gasoline and other consumer energy prices rising in recent weeks," Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in July congressional testimony, "inflation seems likely to move temporarily higher in the near term."
"Core" inflation, excluding energy and food, increased 0.3 percent from last month and 2.5 percent from the year before. The Fed has an unofficial target rate for annual inflation of about 2 percent, but it has resisted raising rates to curb inflation because of broader concerns about the U.S. economy.
The Fed might also take comfort in the fact that oil and food prices have eased this month, developments that were not factored into the July report.
Overall, the consumer price index was driven higher by rising prices for gasoline (4.1 percent), natural gas (7.4 percent), electricity (2.5 percent) and other household fuels. Food prices increased 0.9 percent.
Economists were particularly alarmed by price spikes in other areas. Apparel jumped 1.2 percent. Lodging away from home climbed 0.7 percent. Education, telephone services, tobacco and airfare also rose substantially.
In the case of apparel, economists said there were growing signs that import prices are rising fast -- especially from places such as China. "Retailers are saying that China is getting too costly and they have to shift their operations out of China," said Richard Yamarone, chief economist at Argus Research. "Wages are escalating there, and shipping prices are out of control."