Musharraf Exits, but Uncertainty Remains

By Candace Rondeaux
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, August 19, 2008

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, Aug. 18 -- Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf's resignation Monday signaled the beginning of a new round of political uncertainty as the country's civilian government tries to reshape the legacy of nearly nine years of military rule.

Politicians began marathon meetings about possible replacements for Musharraf, with early reports suggesting a woman might be chosen. As word of the resignation spread, Musharraf's opponents celebrated with cakes in some places, gunfire in others. Financial markets rebounded.

But with the country's economy at an all-time low and a radical Islamist insurgency based in the country's tribal areas gaining in strength, the civilian coalition faces challenges that will not be easily or quickly sorted out, analysts here said.

Musharraf's exit, facilitated by an immunity agreement, appeared to augur a new rapport between the country's newly elected civilian government and the powerful military. But few people here seemed certain the nuclear-armed nation's episodic clashes between military might and secular statesmanship were at an end. And the departure of a man who closely allied himself with the United States in anti-terrorism operations opens the question of how his successor will work with Washington and confront the growing insurgency within Pakistan's borders.

Officials said it is likely that Musharraf, who took power in a 1999 military coup, will soon leave the country, possibly to live in the Persian Gulf emirate of Dubai. He negotiated immunity from civil and criminal prosecution for events during his rule, assurances that smoothed his resignation, the officials said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject.

Musharraf announced his decision in a nationally televised public address 11 days after leaders of the two ruling parties said they would proceed with his impeachment. Demands for his resignation became increasingly vocal last week after Pakistan's four provincial assemblies voted overwhelmingly for his ouster.

In the hour-long address, Musharraf struck a defiant and emotional tone, saying that opponents had opted for the politics of confrontation over reconciliation. He said he would step down in the interest of maintaining stability in Pakistan.

"I am leaving with the satisfaction that whatever I could do for this country I did it with integrity," Musharraf said. "I am a human, too. I may have made mistakes, but I believe that the people will forgive me."

In Islamabad, the capital, news of Musharraf's departure was greeted with jubilation. People flocked to sweets shops in the city's popular Jinnah Supermarket to buy cakes and pastries to celebrate. Shazia Hassan, a 32-year-old homemaker, was nearly bursting with excitement as she stood in line to buy cakes for her husband and children. "It's the dawn of democracy," she declared.

Leaders of the ruling Pakistan People's Party and Pakistan Muslim League-N party hailed the resignation. "This is a victory for democratic forces," said Farzana Raja, a top member of the Pakistan People's Party. "It should have happened much earlier. The dictatorship should have been done away with some time ago."

The parties, which defeated Musharraf's Pakistan Muslim League-Q faction in national parliamentary elections in February, have pledged to elect a new president as quickly as possible. Coalition government leaders met late Monday in Islamabad to discuss the next steps and potential candidates for the post.

Leading contenders for the presidency are likely to come from the Pakistan People's Party, which won a majority of seats in Parliament in the February elections.

Party leader Asif Ali Zardari has remained noncommittal about his interest in the job. Zardari, who was named head of the party after Benazir Bhutto, his wife and the longtime party chief, was assassinated last year, has suggested that a female party member might be Pakistan's president.

The roster of female candidates in a country long dominated by political strongmen is relatively short. Many here speculate that Faryal Talpur, Zardari's sister and a member of Parliament from the southern province of Sindh -- a PPP stronghold -- could top the list. Other potential female contenders include the speaker of the National Assembly, Fehmida Mirza, a longtime associate of Bhutto's.

Parliament has 30 days to elect Musharraf's replacement. Until then, the presidency will fall to the chairman of Pakistan's Senate, Mohammedmian Soomro. A member of Musharraf's Pakistan Muslim League-Q party, Soomro was governor of the southern province of Sindh from 2000 to 2002 and was elected to the Senate in 2003. Soomro, a former banker, was appointed interim prime minister by Musharraf last year, days after he declared a state of emergency in the country. Soomro could not be reached for comment Monday.

The immunity deal that helped ease Musharraf out rankled some members of Pakistan's elite. Aitzaz Ahsan, president of the country's Supreme Court Bar Association, said Musharraf should face trial for treason, an offense punishable by death in Pakistan. Ahsan, who became a staunch and vocal critic of Musharraf after the president last year suspended the chief justice, said Musharraf was "running away from accountability."

"If he's man enough and as he has said he has done nothing wrong, he should stand trial," Ahsan said.

Born in New Delhi in 1943, four years before the partition of India and Pakistan, Musharraf emigrated with his family to the southern Pakistani city of Karachi in 1947. He graduated from the prestigious Pakistan Military Academy, then quickly rose through the army ranks, serving several years with the Pakistani army's elite commando unit.

Musharraf came to power by overthrowing then-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on Oct. 12, 1999, amid a highly public falling-out between the two men over a controversial military operation in the disputed territory of Kashmir.

Musharraf promised at the time that military rule would be short-lived and would "pave the way for true democracy to flourish in Pakistan." But in ensuing years, he maintained a firm grasp on power while the country witnessed unprecedented economic growth, boosted in part by aid from the United States. Widely credited with initiating a thaw in relations with rival India and banning the practice of honor killings against women, Musharraf enjoyed strong domestic support during the early years of his rule.

He aligned the country openly with the United States after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, though many U.S. officials came to question his commitment. As ire over the alliance grew at home and in the wider Muslim world, his grip on power began to slip. The first signs of trouble appeared last March, when he suspended Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry, considered a preemptive move to head off a court challenge to the legitimacy of his presidency.

Month by month, political turmoil escalated. Former prime minister Bhutto returned from exile, only to be assassinated in December; insurgents along the border with Afghanistan stepped up attacks.

Bhutto's death generated widespread anger at Musharraf and sympathy for her Pakistan People's Party, which won a resounding victory in the February national elections.

Last week, Zardari and Sharif, head of the other coalition party, appeared to present a united front after announcing plans to impeach the president. But many here wonder how long the honeymoon will last in what analysts are calling a marriage of convenience.

Ahmed Rashid, a regional terrorism expert and Pakistani author, said he doubts the coalition government is prepared to confront the terrorism challenge within its borders. In his view, the government is likely to remain a junior partner to the military in any future decisions about how to confront extremist fighters.

Yet it is the government, not the military, that is likely to face criticism at home and from its international allies.

"There's going to be enormous pressure on the civilian government from the American administration to get their acts together, to show that they can confront militancy in Pakistan," Rashid said. "It will be a test of the coalition, which I think will fall apart."

Coalition government leaders were expected to meet again Tuesday before making an announcement about their plans for selecting a new leader.

Special correspondent Shaiq Hussein in Islamabad contributed to this report.