Senate Seeks to Avoid Election-Year Showdown Over Contra Aid

At least for the time being, the plan also provides an umbrella large enough to cover both Dukakis and Bentsen, although the real test could come later if the Senate must vote on military aid.

But as presently drawn, the plan does not necessarily mean the Senate will vote on military aid. The issue will be put to a Senate vote only if the House first approves the Reagan request. The House is traditionally more opposed to military aid than the Senate, although House Speaker Jim Wright (D-Tex.) has assured skeptical Republicans that the House will not try to dodge a vote.

Moreover, Democrats plan to attach the plan to a defense appropriations bill that Reagan has threatened to veto if Congress, as expected, includes arms-control and other provisions that prompted Reagan's veto last week of a defense authorization bill.

Democrats clearly hope to use contra aid as an incentive to get Reagan to sign the defense money bill. If he doesn't, they could argue he was blocking contra aid. The prospect of a messy showdown just a few weeks before the November election, with potential risks for both parties, could provide a powerful mutual incentive for a more amicable solution.

With all or nearly all Democrats on board behind the plan, they could pass it on a party-line vote. But many of them clearly want Republican support.

Not only would it add strength to the carrot-and-stick message to Ortega, as the Democrats say officially, but it would make it more difficult for Republicans, including Reagan and Bush, to make political hay out of the plan if it falters.

"The Democrats could win in a way that would be politically damaging to them in the end," Sen. William S. Cohen (R-Maine) said.

But without the Democrats, Cohen noted, "Republicans would have the issue but no money," meaning that Republicans cannot hope to push through military aid on their own unless they get Democratic support.

And by coming up with a plan of their own, the Democrats blocked Minority Leader Robert J. Dole (R-Kan.) from getting such bipartisan support for his own $47 million plan, including $20 million in standby military aid.

While taking the Democrats off the hook politically, a bipartisan deal has several other advantages for Republicans.

Just as the Democrats are worried about what the Sandinista regime may do between now and the election, some Republicans are concerned about possible misadventures by the contras. Political protection would extend both ways.

Moreover, with Bush trailing in the polls, some Republicans are reluctant to get too far out on a limb with him, especially on an issue that does worse than Bush in the polls. If nothing else, the plan buys them some time and distance.