Senate Seeks to Avoid Election-Year Showdown Over Contra Aid

By Helen Dewar
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, August 18, 2008 9:08 AM

In jockeying for position in the election-year conflict over military aid to the Nicaraguan contras, the Senate may have found the best vantage point: a safe foxhole.

Just as Vice President Bush is moving to highlight differences on the issue between himself and Democratic presidential nominee Michael S.

Dukakis, Senate Republicans and Democrats are trying to agree on a plan that would allow an orderly, peaceable resolution of their contra-aid dispute this fall.

On the surface, the task appears difficult because of the long political shadows cast by the presidential campaign in which Bush, who supports military aid, is seeking to portray Dukakis' opposition to it as an indication of Democratic weakness on foreign policy. Conversely, Dukakis has attacked the policy as illegal, if not immoral. Their main cheerleaders in Congress have staked out similar positions.

For the Democrats, the problem is complicated because Dukakis' running mate, Sen. Lloyd Bentsen (D-Tex.), is a longtime supporter of military aid to the forces opposing the leftist Sandinista regime in Managua; his position is considerably closer to Bush's than to Dukakis'.

But the entanglements of presidential and congressional politics pose risks for many lawmakers that may overwhelm the lure of any political profit from an exploitation of differences.

House and Senate members have been wrestling with the issue for most of the decade, and it never seems to go away. Polls indicate the American people are uncomfortable at best with U.S. military aid to the contras, but politicians instictively know that heads may roll if Central America "goes sour," as they put it.

The plan that Senate leaders shipped off to the White House for review on Friday -- $27 million in humanitarian aid that can be augmented by $16.3 million in stockpiled military supplies if President Reagan requests it and Congress approves -- provides at least some political cover, including protection from being whipsawed by the presidential campaign battle on the issue.

The problem is particularly acute for the Democrats.

With their control over both houses of Congress, Democrats stand to be blamed if, as has happened in the past with visits to Moscow or attacks on the contras, Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega makes an untimely move that arouses U.S. public opinion. They are charged with denying the contras the weapons that might have kept Ortega at bay.

"If the whole thing goes sour, that will end up being our 800-pound gorilla," said Sen. Alan J. Dixon (D-Ill.), who describes Ortega as "an accident waiting to happen."

"The Democrats want -- they need -- cover on the entire thing," said Sen. John S. McCain III (R-Ariz.).

With offers of trade and economic incentives if Ortega behaves and the threat of more weapons for the contras if he does not, Democrats hope the proposed plan will rein in the Sandinistas, at least through the election and transition to a new U.S. administration. The food, clothing and other humanitarian aid offers protection against charges that Congress has left the contras to "starve." For good measure, additional aid is provided for innocent victims of both sides in the fighting.

At least for the time being, the plan also provides an umbrella large enough to cover both Dukakis and Bentsen, although the real test could come later if the Senate must vote on military aid.

But as presently drawn, the plan does not necessarily mean the Senate will vote on military aid. The issue will be put to a Senate vote only if the House first approves the Reagan request. The House is traditionally more opposed to military aid than the Senate, although House Speaker Jim Wright (D-Tex.) has assured skeptical Republicans that the House will not try to dodge a vote.

Moreover, Democrats plan to attach the plan to a defense appropriations bill that Reagan has threatened to veto if Congress, as expected, includes arms-control and other provisions that prompted Reagan's veto last week of a defense authorization bill.

Democrats clearly hope to use contra aid as an incentive to get Reagan to sign the defense money bill. If he doesn't, they could argue he was blocking contra aid. The prospect of a messy showdown just a few weeks before the November election, with potential risks for both parties, could provide a powerful mutual incentive for a more amicable solution.

With all or nearly all Democrats on board behind the plan, they could pass it on a party-line vote. But many of them clearly want Republican support.

Not only would it add strength to the carrot-and-stick message to Ortega, as the Democrats say officially, but it would make it more difficult for Republicans, including Reagan and Bush, to make political hay out of the plan if it falters.

"The Democrats could win in a way that would be politically damaging to them in the end," Sen. William S. Cohen (R-Maine) said.

But without the Democrats, Cohen noted, "Republicans would have the issue but no money," meaning that Republicans cannot hope to push through military aid on their own unless they get Democratic support.

And by coming up with a plan of their own, the Democrats blocked Minority Leader Robert J. Dole (R-Kan.) from getting such bipartisan support for his own $47 million plan, including $20 million in standby military aid.

While taking the Democrats off the hook politically, a bipartisan deal has several other advantages for Republicans.

Just as the Democrats are worried about what the Sandinista regime may do between now and the election, some Republicans are concerned about possible misadventures by the contras. Political protection would extend both ways.

Moreover, with Bush trailing in the polls, some Republicans are reluctant to get too far out on a limb with him, especially on an issue that does worse than Bush in the polls. If nothing else, the plan buys them some time and distance.