There's Nothing So Simple About a Straight Party Vote

A Washington Post poll last year found that 30 percent of adults in Virginia described themselves as independent and that 35 percent of them live in Northern Virginia.

If recent elections are any indication, Democrats face a tough sell in convincing those independents that they should avoid pulling the lever for any Republican candidate.

Virginia's tendency toward ticket splitting was evident in the 2006 elections.

That year, about 25,000 voters in the 11th District who supported Democrat James Webb in his successful campaign to unseat Sen. George Allen (R) also voted to reelect Davis. That is about 10 percent of the district's electorate.

In the 10th District, which stretches from McLean to Winchester, about 20,000 Webb voters also supported Wolf. Those numbers are based on an assumption that few Allen supporters also supported a Democratic congressional candidate.

Davis often credits Webb's race against Allen for helping to save his own electoral fortunes in 2006. Davis has said he suspects that Northern Virginia voters who were angry at the Bush administration that year took their frustrations out on Allen but then returned to the GOP fold for the congressional races to demonstrate their bipartisan nature.

Ticket splitting is also prevalent in statewide races. In 2005, voters elected Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) as well as Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell and Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, both Republicans.

Despite that history, Democrats remain optimistic that voters in many parts of the state will pull the Democratic lever for president, Senate and House races.

Kaine said in a recent interview that he thinks Warner will run so strongly in the Senate race he will lift Obama's chances in the presidential race. Kaine also predicts that new voters Obama draws this year will support Warner.

"I've always thought this is a unique race where there will be both an up-ticket and a down-ticket effect," Kaine said. "I don't think there will be Obama-Gilmore voters, unless they might be Jim Gilmore's kids," said Kaine, referring to Warner's Republican opponent, former governor James S. Gilmore III. "And I think Mark has some real great affection for him in some parts of the state that might be tough for Obama normally, and I think his organization and effort in those areas, and his vouching for Obama, will help some of those Warner people get on board with Obama."

(For the record, Gilmore's sons, Jay and Ashton, support McCain for president. Gilmore spokeswoman Ana Gamonal also notes that Gilmore expects to win votes from African American Obama supporters, given the former governor's strong ties to that community over the years.)

Obama clearly needs Warner supporters more than Warner needs Obama supporters.

In many recent surveys, Warner holds a 20-point lead over Gilmore, while Obama is running essentially even with McCain in Virginia.

Warner is so confident he has the upper hand that he is currently not airing television ads, even though he is one of best-funded Senate candidates running for an open seat this year.

That means the pressure will be on Obama, as well as Democratic congressional candidates, to persuade large numbers of voters in some swing districts such as the 11th to vote for three Democratic candidates.

It's a hard argument to make, especially considering that on the campaign trail Warner and Obama stress the need for more bipartisanship in Washington.

If even 5 percent of voters in certain districts decide, either from habit or preference, that they can't vote for all three top Democrats on the ballot, either Obama or Democratic House candidates could suffer the consequences.

Obama could then be left wondering: "Would I have been better off if Warner wasn't so popular?"