By Tim Craig
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, August 21, 2008
RICHMOND When Virginia Democrats gather in Denver next week for the party's national convention, they will boast what they consider one of their strongest tickets in a generation.
Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), who handily won Virginia's Feb. 12 Democratic primary, will be the party's first name on the general election ballot.
U.S. Senate candidate Mark R. Warner, a popular former governor who is seeking to rack up a big winning margin on Election Day, will be name on the party's second line.
And for the first time in memory, Democrats are fielding congressional candidates in all 11 districts. Those races get the third spot on the ballot.
In Northern Virginia's 11th Congressional District, a proven vote-getter, Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Chairman Gerald E. Connolly, is the Democratic nominee in the race to replace Rep. Tom Davis (R), who is retiring. Connolly's opponent is Republican Keith S. Fimian. In the 10th Congressional District, Democrat Judy M. Feder is making her second attempt to unseat Rep. Frank R. Wolf (R).
The potential strength of their ticket has many party insiders optimistic that it could be a big Democratic year in Virginia. The Virginia Democratic Party has already printed up signs that feature the names of Obama, Warner and Democratic candidates for Congress in certain districts.
For Democrats to pull off a trifecta of victories in a district such as the 11th in Fairfax and Prince William counties, which is central to Obama's hopes of winning Virginia's 13 electoral votes, large numbers of voters will have to choose a straight Democratic line.
Unfortunately for Democrats, Virginia voters have a reputation for splitting their tickets, especially in such places as Fairfax, where many embrace the notion that bipartisanship equals good government.
The question for Obama may now become: Is it possible that running alongside Warner will hurt, instead of help, his chances to carry the state?
Mike DuHaime, political director for Republican presidential candidate John McCain, said in a conference call with Virginia reporters last week that he's confident the state's voters "are going to make decisions independent of each other" when it comes to casting votes for president and members of Congress.
But given President Bush's low approval ratings and lingering dissatisfaction over the war in Iraq, this could be a year in which large numbers of voters in some Democratic-leaning states decide to send a message by voting for only Democrats.
In Virginia, however, it's hard to see how a majority of the state's voters will embrace the notion of voting for only Democrats in federal races.
A Washington Post poll last year found that 30 percent of adults in Virginia described themselves as independent and that 35 percent of them live in Northern Virginia.
If recent elections are any indication, Democrats face a tough sell in convincing those independents that they should avoid pulling the lever for any Republican candidate.
Virginia's tendency toward ticket splitting was evident in the 2006 elections.
That year, about 25,000 voters in the 11th District who supported Democrat James Webb in his successful campaign to unseat Sen. George Allen (R) also voted to reelect Davis. That is about 10 percent of the district's electorate.
In the 10th District, which stretches from McLean to Winchester, about 20,000 Webb voters also supported Wolf. Those numbers are based on an assumption that few Allen supporters also supported a Democratic congressional candidate.
Davis often credits Webb's race against Allen for helping to save his own electoral fortunes in 2006. Davis has said he suspects that Northern Virginia voters who were angry at the Bush administration that year took their frustrations out on Allen but then returned to the GOP fold for the congressional races to demonstrate their bipartisan nature.
Ticket splitting is also prevalent in statewide races. In 2005, voters elected Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) as well as Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell and Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, both Republicans.
Despite that history, Democrats remain optimistic that voters in many parts of the state will pull the Democratic lever for president, Senate and House races.
Kaine said in a recent interview that he thinks Warner will run so strongly in the Senate race he will lift Obama's chances in the presidential race. Kaine also predicts that new voters Obama draws this year will support Warner.
"I've always thought this is a unique race where there will be both an up-ticket and a down-ticket effect," Kaine said. "I don't think there will be Obama-Gilmore voters, unless they might be Jim Gilmore's kids," said Kaine, referring to Warner's Republican opponent, former governor James S. Gilmore III. "And I think Mark has some real great affection for him in some parts of the state that might be tough for Obama normally, and I think his organization and effort in those areas, and his vouching for Obama, will help some of those Warner people get on board with Obama."
(For the record, Gilmore's sons, Jay and Ashton, support McCain for president. Gilmore spokeswoman Ana Gamonal also notes that Gilmore expects to win votes from African American Obama supporters, given the former governor's strong ties to that community over the years.)
Obama clearly needs Warner supporters more than Warner needs Obama supporters.
In many recent surveys, Warner holds a 20-point lead over Gilmore, while Obama is running essentially even with McCain in Virginia.
Warner is so confident he has the upper hand that he is currently not airing television ads, even though he is one of best-funded Senate candidates running for an open seat this year.
That means the pressure will be on Obama, as well as Democratic congressional candidates, to persuade large numbers of voters in some swing districts such as the 11th to vote for three Democratic candidates.
It's a hard argument to make, especially considering that on the campaign trail Warner and Obama stress the need for more bipartisanship in Washington.
If even 5 percent of voters in certain districts decide, either from habit or preference, that they can't vote for all three top Democrats on the ballot, either Obama or Democratic House candidates could suffer the consequences.
Obama could then be left wondering: "Would I have been better off if Warner wasn't so popular?"
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