How To Deter Russia

Ideas are circulating about how to punish Russia for invading Georgia, but the West's focus should be on deterring aggression, not exacting revenge. Moscow's aim is broader than most have stated. It is not seeking simply to oust Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili. It wants to intimidate Georgia and coerce other "near abroad" countries throughout the former Soviet dominion.

Western policy should have three dimensions: countering Russian aggression, enhancing regional deterrence, and strengthening recovery and governance in Georgia. All will raise the cost of future aggression.

After an earlier outrage -- the 1983 downing of Korean Airlines Flight 007, in which dozens of Americans died -- there were calls to break diplomatic and economic ties with the Soviet Union. Thankfully, wisdom prevailed. President Ronald Reagan suspended Aeroflot flights to the United States but preserved basic U.S.-Soviet relations. This prudence facilitated valuable arms reduction treaties between the United States and the Soviet Union in Reagan's second term.

Likewise today, exacting revenge is unrealistic and unwise. Europe depends heavily on Russian energy. The international community has a vital interest in working with Moscow to address nuclear proliferation and other transnational challenges.

The United States and Europe should respond in a firm but focused way. Initially this means pressuring Russia to meet its withdrawal commitments, which it still is not clearly doing. Over the longer term, it means strengthening Georgia and its neighbors while keeping open the doors of communication with Moscow.

Stalling Russian membership in the World Trade Organization would delay arrangements and incentives for Russia to deal fairly with other nations. Helping Georgia rebuild and modernize its infrastructure, in contrast, will enhance prosperity and decrease Tbilisi's vulnerability to economic pressure. The West should offer targeted reconstruction support -- along the lines of Sen. Joe Biden's proposal for a billion dollars in assistance -- as well as humanitarian aid, and it should encourage investment.

Threatening to withdraw support for Russia's hosting of the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi would divide the West and probably fail. If by next summer, however, Russia has not fully withdrawn from Georgia or is otherwise mistreating its neighbors, it should be removed from the Group of Eight industrial democracies.

Dwelling on Tbilisi's mistakes in the face of Russia's brazen provocations and threats would egg on chauvinist forces in Moscow. However, recommitting to the admission of Georgia and Ukraine into NATO, as the alliance's foreign ministers did this week, shows Russia that it has failed to humble the alliance and Tbilisi. The United States and Europe should also offer troops to internationalize peacekeeping in Georgia's separatist areas.

Robust U.S. and NATO security support will increase deterrence by raising the capacity of countries in the region to defend their independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity. Integrated air and ground defenses, reconnaissance and surveillance tools, and systems for port and transportation security would do much to enhance deterrence. Although Georgia and other regional states are not NATO members, tying their defenses more closely with U.S. and NATO forces would increase Moscow's uncertainty about how the West would respond to future aggression.

Security and economic cooperation among countries in the region would further strengthen deterrence. The Central Asian nations of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan and Georgia's South Caucasus neighbors -- Azerbaijan and Armenia -- have shared interests in secure, unimpeded energy and overland transport to Georgia's Black Sea ports and Turkey. These countries should not sit quietly as Moscow puts Georgia through the wringer; they could be next.

The United States and Europe should encourage these countries, despite their rivalries and weaknesses, to deepen cooperation on economic and related security matters, such as enhancing pipeline security and modernizing infrastructure. A new regional association, perhaps modeled on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, could foster economic reform, cooperation and investment.

The NATO Partnership for Peace program is designed for peacetime, not to defend against real threats. The strong reaction of the United States and Europe to Russia's invasion shows that their interests in the region are extremely important. NATO should upgrade the program so that participants can better help each other in crises. Enhanced bilateral security ties -- especially with the United States, Britain and France -- will also be critical to lessening the dangerous security vacuum in Central Asia and the South Caucasus.

For their own part, the Georgians need to strengthen their democracy, including through public debate about the tragic events this month and what preceded them. That debate should examine intelligence, policies, decision making and lessons learned. Unfettered media coverage and a parliamentary investigation are key. Such a debate will be painful, but it can have important healing power in a political system under great stress.

Russia won a tactical victory in Georgia over an outgunned and much smaller force. Ultimately, however, the attack is likely to put in motion forces that will diminish Moscow's ability to treat neighbors with impunity. Deterring future aggression is the best response -- and starts with strengthening the countries in that region.

William Courtney and Kenneth Yalowitz are retired career diplomats. Mr. Courtney was U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan from 1992 to 1995 and to Georgia from 1995 to 1997. Mr. Yalowitz, the U.S. ambassador to Belarus from 1994 to 1997 and Georgia from 1998 to 2001, is director of the John Sloan Dickey Center for International Understanding at Dartmouth College.