Va. Delegation Hoping to Put a Halt to Slide

Workers wrap up preparations for the Republican National Convention. Virginia delegates see the November election as a chance to rebound from recent disappointments. (By Toni L. Sandys -- The Washington Post)
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Robert D. Holsworth, a political science professor at Virginia Commonwealth University, said the party suffered setbacks when two of its national stars fell out of favor. Gilmore, who became a national figure when Bush tapped him to lead the Republican National Committee, had budget problems as governor early in the decade and clashed with other party leaders. Then-Sen. George Allen, a former governor who was widely expected to run for president, lost his reelection bid in 2006.

In recent years, the Republican Party has been split between moderates, many from Northern Virginia, and anti-tax social conservatives.

In May, Gilmore narrowly defeated Del. Robert G. Marshall (Prince William), a staunch opponent of abortion rights and tax increases, for the U.S. Senate nomination. Del. Jeffrey M. Frederick (Prince William), a steadfast conservative, ousted the relatively moderate former lieutenant governor, John H. Hager, as party chairman.

"I think we have seen the party drift more to the middle, and now people are pushing back,'' said Wendell Walker, 55, a self-described conservative Republican from Lynchburg who is a delegate to the national convention.

Some moderate Republicans worry that they no longer have a place in the party and that a shift to the right is coming as the state is tilting left.

An influx of voters, particularly in Northern Virginia, helped Democrats Warner and Kaine win the past two gubernatorial elections and helped Webb oust Allen from the Senate in 2006. Democrats also took control of the state Senate last year, and Warner is widely considered the front-runner to replace retiring Sen. John W. Warner (R).

Despite the recent setbacks, Republicans still consider Virginia a conservative Southern state, where Democrats have to move toward the center to win.

In recent months, many Republican activists say, they sense a growing excitement and a feeling that the state party is on the brink of a resurgence.

"We're on an upswing and getting more confident,'' said state Sen. Ken Cuccinelli II (R-Fairfax), who is running for state attorney general in 2009.

Holsworth said the Republican Party has started rebounding in Virginia after being "unstable for much of a decade."

The state party, under new leadership, has seen an upturn in the number of large donors and has united behind candidates for governor and lieutenant governor next year while Democrats remain divided. And perhaps, most importantly, support for Sen. John McCain coalesced months ago while Democrats remain split on Sen. Barack Obama as their presidential nominee.

Although former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee did relatively well against McCain, particularly in rural counties, in the Feb. 12 Virginia primary, party activists say they are now unified behind McCain.

"I think that excitement is growing because [Virginia Republicans] are starting to say, 'I think this guy can really win,' " said Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, who is a delegate to a national convention for the first time. "I don't think they were saying that a month or two ago but they're saying that now."

No Democratic presidential candidate has won Virginia since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. Bush won the state by eight percentage points in 2000 and 2004.

Frederick acknowledged a host of past problems but said circumstances can quickly change. Some Republicans are crediting the new chairman with bringing new technology and organization to the party.

"When you have all that frustration, the activists aren't as motivated,'' Frederick said. "But I think things are looking up."