Despite GOP Convention Site, Midwest Unlikely to Be Crucial

ST. PAUL, Minn. -- When Republican leaders were deciding where to hold their 2008 nominating convention, their final considerations came down to major urban areas in a trio of swing states: Cleveland, Tampa-St. Petersburg and Minneapolis-St. Paul. In settling on the Twin Cities and basing the event in St. Paul, party leaders took a gamble on the electoral map.

But while the Upper Midwest is home to a parcel of swing states in the current presidential contest -- Wisconsin and Iowa, more so than Minnesota -- the region is not likely to be crucial in determining the next commander in chief. The next White House occupant probably will be the candidate who performs best in the Rocky Mountain West and traditional battleground states such as Ohio, Michigan and Florida. In picking the location for their own quadrennial gathering, Democrats appear to have won the convention lottery.

"If Republicans had their choice, they would rather be in Denver," said Steven Schier, a political science professor at Carleton College in Northfield, Minn. "The last few years have not been kind to Republicans here."

Four years ago, President Bush and Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) fought a fierce battle in the Upper Midwest: Kerry won Minnesota by three percentage points and Wisconsin by one point, while Bush carried Iowa by just half a point. In 2000, Bush and Al Gore tied in Wisconsin, with Gore edging Bush out by two points in Minnesota and one point in Iowa. Current polling shows Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) leading Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in all three states, but McCain's aides think they can turn the tide.

"The Great Lakes states have been a key battleground in the last few elections, and they will be again this election," McCain senior strategist Charlie Black said in an interview Sunday.

While Hurricane Gustav threw the opening of the Republican convention into chaos, McCain's allies are still confident that the site of the gathering will help cement the perception that it is he, rather than Obama, who embodies Midwestern values.

"It's a big plus to have the convention in America's heartland, because it's a big opportunity to highlight Middle America and kitchen-table issues," Rep. Jim Ramstad (R-Minn.) said in an interview. "Middle America's going to decide this election."

But McCain and his party may be focused more on wooing Minnesota's neighbors than on the host state itself. The Twin Cities media market covers all of western Wisconsin, and McCain has traveled there four times since securing the GOP nomination. Wisconsin has more of the industrial, working-class voters he hopes will flock to his candidacy, Schier noted, while Minnesota is dominated more by workers in industries such as health care.

"It's not a rust-bucket state by any means," he said.

McCain will have to buck history to claim victories in the region. Wisconsin has not backed a GOP presidential candidate since 1980, and Minnesota has not fallen into the Republican column since 1972. McCain lags behind Obama in polling in both states, but his recent swing through the region has not gone unnoticed.

"An investment of time and resources pays off," said Lawrence R. Jacobs, who directs the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota's Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs. "There is a willingness by Upper Midwest voters to give Republican candidates a look and a listen."

Jacobs, who helped oversee a poll last month conducted jointly by the Humphrey institute and Minnesota Public Radio, noted that 10 percent of the likely voters they surveyed were undecided, and more than 10 percent of the two candidates' backers said they might change their minds before Election Day. While Obama held a 10-point lead in the survey, Jacobs said, "it's a malleable number."

Selecting Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty as his running mate could have provided McCain a 13-point boost, according to the poll. GOP strategists are hoping that his choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin will energize socially conservative voters in states such as Iowa, where they play a pivotal role.

Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.), who is locked in a tight reelection battle with comedian Al Franken, said GOP activists in his state and elsewhere are thrilled with Palin's selection.

"These elections are all about the folks who want it a little more and work a little bit more," he said. "You've got to energize your base."

Iowa, which provided Obama with his first win in the Democratic nominating contest, could prove to be one of the most competitive states in the region this year. A recent University of Iowa poll gives Obama a five-point edge among registered voters in the state, with his supporters significantly more apt to say they are strongly behind their candidate. Bush's approval rating stands at just 31 percent in the survey, with 80 percent of Iowa voters saying the country is headed in the wrong direction.

Despite their demographic and ideological differences, all three states offer the candidates an identical terrain dominated by the economy and, to a lesser extent, the war in Iraq.

Ramstad, who has been holding town hall meetings with his constituents this week, said he hears the same refrain repeatedly: "Everybody's talking about gas prices, jobs, health care, gas prices, jobs, health care."

Minnesota is experiencing its highest unemployment rate in a quarter-century; 40 percent of voters polled by Minnesota Public Radio and the Humphrey institute identified the economy as their top concern, compared with 13 percent who said the war.

Those economic concerns tend to favor Democrats. But Dane Smith, who heads the Center for Growth and Justice, an economic think tank, said McCain may be able to appeal to voters in the region if he can tap into the prairie populism that has thrived here for decades. Even some Republicans who largely toe the conservative line, such as Pawlenty, frame their policies in progressive terms.

"He understands how to talk in a way that doesn't instill antagonism to his pretty hard-line economic and social conservatism," Smith said. "Republicans have been able to compete here under a more or less progressive brand."

Coleman argued that holding the convention in Minnesota will at least draw voters' attention here to the GOP ticket.

"You get a little more focus on what you are, and what you're about," he said, adding that some people may consider his analysis of the situation a bit sanguine. "I'm an optimist. I only think about the positives."