Galvanized Parties Head to Homestretch

David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, argued that Democrats remain better positioned. Both nominees now have unified bases, but he said that Obama still has the advantage by virtue of his ability to increase turnout significantly over what it was four years ago. "Who's going to really expand the pie over where it was in 2004?" he asked.

Obama's campaign has tried to expand not just the electorate but the electoral map, running ads in such GOP presidential strongholds as Alaska, North Dakota and North Carolina. McCain advisers argued this week that with the choice of Palin and other factors, the real battlegrounds are mostly the same as they were in the past.

McCain's team is now confident that it will win Alaska and Montana, both targets of the Obama campaign. His advisers also doubt that Obama has any real chance of winning Georgia, where Democrats are mounting registration drives to enlarge the electorate, or North Carolina, where Obama scored a big victory in the primaries.

Obama has stopped running ads in Alaska, but Plouffe said the state remains a target, as do the others cited by McCain as almost out of reach. "We still have a wider map than McCain does," he said.

Obama hopes to put Colorado, Nevada and Virginia, three traditionally strong GOP states, into his column. He also has an advantage now in two states that Bush narrowly won in 2004: Iowa and New Mexico.

McCain advisers know that Iowa is a particular challenge because he has never really competed there in either of his nomination battles. But they hope to counter by capturing New Hampshire, the state that launched McCain in 2000 and saved him in 2008.

But four other states now loom largest: Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Obama did not compete in Florida or Michigan during the primaries because of Democratic Party sanctions. He lost Ohio and Pennsylvania to Clinton.

McCain advisers see Florida as very competitive but likely to end up their column. They consider Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania as key to the election, believing that whoever wins two of the three in the industrial heartland will win.

The vice presidential candidates may be called upon to play central roles in the battle for these states. Biden, who was raised in a working-class family in Scranton, Pa., will vouch for Obama among white voters there. McCain's team plans to use Palin to woo small-town and rural voters in those states, projecting herself as one of them, a "hockey mom" who shares their values.

But Obama advisers predict Palin will not play as well among independents as she does with the Republican base. "With independent women, we don't see any evidence that she helps," Plouffe said. "Their ticket has taken a harder turn to the right in the last six days. Our sense is that that's not what independent women are looking for."

Coming out of the conventions, the two parties appear highly polarized. Both campaigns now anticipate that close to nine in 10 Republicans will vote for McCain and the same percentage of Democrats will vote for Obama. The challenge for Obama will come among voters who supported Clinton in the primaries. The battle will be over independents, loosely affiliated voters, suburban women, working-class whites, and Latinos.

Obama advisers argue that they have an easier job of keeping their base energized and reaching out to independents. McCain, they say, must deliver a mixed message. Palin, who is more conservative than McCain, will be used to lock down the GOP base, but McCain will have to convince independents that he is anything but a typical Republican.

Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster, said McCain must pitch his general-election message to disaffected Democrats and independents. "More than 35 percent of McCain's votes have to come from 'Bush disapprovers' for him to win," he said.

McCain will emphasize his reform message and play the national security card. "The fault line in this election is between voters who are looking for hope and optimism and those who are looking for security and safety," Democratic pollster Geoff Garin said. "McCain is not in the game with those who are looking for a leader who will give them hope, so he has to maximize his support among those who want security -- typically older whites without a college degree."

McCain spent the summer attacking Obama in the hope that he could get to this point with the race still close. He has managed to do that. Now with the choice of Palin, he has placed another bet that he can change the race even more in the final two months.