Georgians Question Wisdom of War With Russia

Saakashvili's Western-oriented government has been hailed as a "beacon of democracy" by President Bush. But many here say that long before the war, the government used tensions over the breakaway regions to flout basic democratic principles, change the constitution to strengthen the ruling party, ignore judiciary problems and suppress the media.

Such complaints helped spark massive protests here last November, which the government crushed with tear gas and masked troops wielding batons, staining Georgia's international image. Saakashvili ended the crisis by calling a snap presidential election; he won a second term, though with less support than in the previous election and with allegations of vote-rigging.

With an ineffectual opposition, Saakashvili and his ruling majority had seemed securely ensconced for another five years. But now there is serious pressure: A popular opposition member of Parliament has called for an investigative commission, 80 organizations and individuals have signed a petition calling for a "broad debate," and most opposition leaders refused to sign a government pledge of unity, according to a local online newspaper.

Critics also accuse the government of dishonesty in its characterization of the war's outcome. Several have blasted the government for staging celebrations during and after the war, and for claiming the conflict was an international public relations victory while blaming others for its failures.

"What we are hearing is that everyone is guilty in this but the government itself," Usupashvili said. "They started talking that the events of last year were something which stopped the government from improving the army, or that there are lots of [Russian] agents within the opposition. But they are not looking in their own back yard to see who misled the president by saying the Russians wouldn't respond."

Some people here say the war has delegitimized the president. "He no more has the moral or political right to be commander in chief, and he must resign," said Gamkrelidze, who ran against Saakashvili in January and is calling for new elections.

One politician seen as a possible alternative is Nino Burjanadze, who helped usher in the Rose Revolution and resigned as speaker of the Parliament in the spring. Burjanadze, who recently visited the United States, said she was not yet ready to criticize Saakashvili publicly but said that for years she had warned him that Russia would attack if Georgia sent troops into the breakaway regions. "I always said this, and I said this at the last meeting," shortly before the war, she said.

With his typical confidence, Saakashvili recently answered "absolutely" when asked whether he expects to survive the crisis politically.

For all his troubles, his is a familiar face to Georgian voters as well as Western allies, and some people here predict he will finish his term, though perhaps in a weakened position that forces him into power-sharing.

Rondeli said he thinks Saakashvili's chances of staying in power are "quite high."

"I think there will be political forces that will try to seize the moment and get rid of him, but I think his position is not as weak as it looks for some," Rondeli said.

Several critics said they worried that speaking out too soon could undermine their chances of changing the leadership. "A lot of people are afraid that they could be arrested for treason," said a government official who recounted discussing with others in the government ways to challenge the administration. Sitting near an outdoor cafe called KGB: Still Watching You, he pushed his cellphone to the other side of the table, noting, "Now, everybody is quite silent, and moving away from cellphones."

The official said he did not expect Saakashvili to last the year but fears what might follow.

"If he is forced out by force, I fear that everything that he achieved -- roads, police reform, Euro-Atlantic cooperation -- could be gone. That's why we really need to change it very, very delicately and in a very quiet way." Otherwise, he said, a more authoritarian government could replace the current one.

Critics say they are not looking for another revolution. Some envision a scenario in which Saakashvili stays on with diminished power. Several, however, expressed fear that rather than feeling chastened by the war, the ruling party will interpret the $1 billion in aid pledged by the United States last week as a green light to continue its policies.

To offer the aid without conditions was "a mistake," Gamkrelidze said, adding that assistance should be tied to judicial, legislative, constitutional and media reforms. "He almost got us into a new cold war, or a third world war. It must be in the interest of the U.S. and European allies to make this country more democratic and more accountable."