Obama Says McCain Has Erred by Focusing on Change

Peyton Watson, 12, asks Barack Obama how he plans to lower gas prices during a town hall meeting in Lebanon, Va. (By Linda Davidson -- The Washington Post)
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Obama has faced questions about his strategy before. A year ago, he was under fire, after months of campaigning, for not moving in the polls. Then when he lost New Hampshire, there were more questions about whether he was overconfident.

Several Democrats said yesterday that those previous episodes give them confidence in Obama's team now. "It reminds me a little bit of the period right after the Iowa caucus," said Sen. Richard J. Durbin (Ill.), an Obama friend and adviser. "There was this unrealistic expectation that he was going to run the table."

Following a successful Democratic convention, Durbin added, "there was another unrealistic expectation that this was going to be simple." But from the beginning, he said, "we said it was going to be a close race, and I've always believed that."

Howard Wolfson, who was the Clinton campaign's communications director, said, "Having watched them for the last two years, I have a lot of respect for their ability. There were times when people in this town fretted about their campaign and they knew what they were doing. And I still think they know what they're doing."

Plouffe said he believed what movement there has been in the race is that the two conventions consolidated the Democratic and Republican bases. "We think he's maxed out his Republican support," he said of McCain. "We still like who the undecided independents are. A lot of them are women -- a lot of suburban women, and there are some rural women. I think if there has been any short-term boost because of Palin and their convention, we think that's going to settle down as people focus on the task ahead."

Still, for all its public displays of confidence, the Obama campaign will dispatch Sen. Claire McCaskill (Mo.) and Govs. Janet Napolitano (Ariz.) and Kathleen Sebelius (Kan.) to battleground states starting this weekend to make direct appeals to female voters. Their mission is to tout the Democratic ticket's support for equal pay, fixing health care and improving schools, but to avoid a gender showdown by keeping the focus on McCain.

The Obama campaign is also urging swing-state supporters to customize McCain's record for specific voter groups. For instance, Sen. Robert P. Casey Jr. (Pa.) said he would remind elderly Pennsylvanians that McCain has supported Social Security privatization efforts, and working-class parents that the GOP nominee opposed an expansion of the Children's Health Insurance Program, which is hugely popular in the Keystone state.

"I don't think the people of Pennsylvania think those are the right policies or the votes of a maverick," Casey said.

But he acknowledged that McCain's shift is resonating. "He's benefited from the afterglow of 2000, when he was running against President Bush," Casey said. "There's still some work to do to let more voters know about his record."

One result of McCain's momentum is that the presidential debates have become make-or-break events. "They're going to be the game here, because people have questions about both candidates," said Rep. Rahm Emanuel (Ill.), who is helping Obama with debate preparation.

He said Obama must focus on two issues that undermine McCain's maverick makeover: his pro-Bush voting record and the high-profile role lobbyists play in his campaign.

"McCain got a good bounce, but it will level out," former Senate majority leader Tom Daschle, a top Obama adviser, said in an e-mail. "But we know we can win this. There will be bumps, twists and turns, but we are going to stick with our strategy."