Terrorism Fades as Issue in 2008 Campaign

Clarke said Obama would try to improve America's image in the Muslim world. Like President Bush, Clarke noted, Obama has emphasized that the United States is not at war with Islam. But Clarke added: "It's not credible coming from a guy who's invaded and occupied Iraq. It would be credible from a guy who says we need to pull out from Iraq."

McCain has proposed some similar policies, calling for a "deployable police presence" to train foreign police to counter Islamic extremists. He calls for a new civil-military agency patterned after the World War II-era Office of Strategic Services to infiltrate terrorist networks, among other tasks. He has also said it was a "mistake" to dismantle the U.S. Information Agency in 1998 and fold its functions into the State Department. "We need to re-create an independent agency with the sole purpose of getting America's message to the world -- a critical element in combating Islamic extremism," McCain said last summer in New Hampshire.

Pillar said he doubts there would be much difference, whomever is elected president. "The tools and the techniques that are available to use are the same tools and techniques that have been around for many years," he said. "There isn't a whole lot that any one leader at the top can do to change the relative emphasis placed on one tool rather than another."

McCain holds a 20-percentage-point advantage over Obama in terms of public perceptions over which candidate would be better at fighting terrorism, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. President Bush held a similar lead over Sen John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) at this point in the 2004 campaign, though Kerry closed the gap to nine points by Election Day.

The key variable that could scramble the equation is a terrorist attack in the next two months.

"John Kerry was on a trajectory to victory if Osama bin Laden did not release a tape on the Friday before the election," said Robert M. Shrum, the top adviser to Kerry in 2004. "The Republicans say we have kept you safe for these years, but you just don't know how people would react [to a new attack], and how the candidates react would make a big difference."

Polling director Jon Cohen, polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta and researcher Julie Tate contributed to this report.