Wall Street Troubles: Are They Too Much to Bear?

"There isn't a huge inventory out there, and there aren't that many people who have to sell," Liebman said.

Here's what else New York has going for it these days: foreigners. Lots and lots of foreigners. They're coming to town and picking up where U.S. buyers are leaving off. Gallery owner Jeffrey Deitch says that in the past six months, his business would have cooled were it not for all the Russians, Middle Easterners and Asian buyers who took up the slack.

"One of the biggest problems in the art market now is that when people come from the Middle East, they have such a humiliatingly long time getting through JFK Airport some of them aren't coming anymore," Deitch said. "You write for a Washington audience. Tell them we need visa reform!"

Without foreigners, the high-end hair stylist who calls herself Ouidad -- that's it, just Ouidad -- would be in the red. In her salon near 57th Street and Fifth Avenue, she noticed lately that a lot of American clients who once came every 10 weeks for a cut are now coming every 13.

"Others used to get a whole head of highlights, now they get partial highlights," she said. "Thank you, foreigners."

Any discussion of the Big One that might someday hit New York has to include the possibility of a recession in Europe. The way-out-of-towners are now so essential that restaurants have started catering to them.

"One of our general managers added a wine list with the prices in euros," said Paul Bolles-Beaven of the Union Square Hospitality Group, which owns 10 of the Manhattan's most beloved restaurants, including Gramercy Tavern. "It's a good idea because it saves the customers from unnecessary math, and they can see directly that with the exchange rate where it is, they're getting a great value."

For those industries that can't avail themselves of the healing power of foreign money, the suffering has started. The caterers, for instance, are already groaning. Bryan Jacobsen, who runs a company called CEM, now earns a measly 1 percent profit on many of the events he bids to cater.

"I used to charge about $14,000 for a 100-person cocktail party," he said. "Now, I'm lucky to charge $9,000." Just as bad, the phones aren't ringing for holiday parties. "I should be getting about five or six calls a day, and I'm getting about three per week. The party is always the first thing to go. They cut what they consider fat."

The lean could be next. It is not hard to find economic forecasters who believe that the expiration of Bear and Lehman is but a prelude to a grinding recession, or worse. As soon as you hear someone mention "credit default swaps," you know you are in for a totally reasonable-sounding explanation about the terrible fates that will befall New York. There are even those -- such as Christian Menegatti of RGE Monitor, a research and consulting company -- who say that the entire "securitization model" that has guided nearly all Wall Street finance in the past few decades is about to go kerflooey.

"I'm sorry that I can't say anything positive," Menegatti said, "but what is happening now is really worrisome."

He might be right. We might be on the verge of doomsday. It just hasn't happened yet, and until it does, what passes for agony today in New York is the sort of decision that Madison Avenue Limousine recently made.

"We were just about to buy a Bentley for our fleet," said director of concierge services Daniel Sasse, "and we decided to go with the Mercedes."