Loudoun Girds for Major Cuts in Next Year's Budget

Loudoun County officials warned residents yesterday to brace for deep cuts in services and a possible showdown with the School Board as they try to bridge a projected $176 million gap in the county's budget.

In his first presentation to the Board of Supervisors about next year's budget, County Administrator Kirby M. Bowers said that sagging home values were the primary culprit but that rising health-care costs and an expected addition of more than 3,500 students to the school district also contributed to the grim picture.

Supervisors said they were not surprised that the outlook was gloomier than this year, when they approved a 19 percent increase in the tax rate, to $1.14 per $100 of assessed value. That sent the average tax bill up about $300.

Without spending cuts, the county would have to raise the tax rate an additional 21 cents to balance next year's budget, but supervisors said that would be an untenable increase.

"We knew it was coming," Supervisor James Burton (I-Blue Ridge) told the board yesterday after Bowers's presentation. "I think it behooves everyone to be thinking about some service levels that will have to be decreased and maybe some service levels that will have to disappear for the time being."

Governments across the region are coping with similarly bad news. This week, the cash-strapped Prince George's County Council approved a mandatory, unpaid two-week furlough for 6,000 county employees. In Fairfax County, leaders are struggling with a $430 million shortfall in county and school budgets.

In addition to service cuts, Loudoun is considering a variety of new taxes, including a levy of up to 4 percent on prepared food and beverages. The meals tax, which will be on the Nov. 4 ballot, is controversial. The Loudoun County Republican Committee issued a statement this month opposing it.

However, a majority of supervisors said such a tax could help take the burden off homeowners, because the bulk of the county's revenue comes from real estate taxes.

Loudoun officials said the revenue gap may widen before the budget process begins in earnest early next year. The county's assessor warned that home values could decline more than the projected 8 percent this year.

Yesterday's estimate also did not take into account inflation or any increase in gasoline or utility rates. Bowers said the county's staff will try to make its own cuts to address those costs.

Moreover, the School Board has yet to submit its proposed spending plan to the Board of Supervisors, which holds the purse strings but has no say over how the school district spends its money.

On average, the district adds 3,000 students each year -- enough to fill an elementary, middle and high school to capacity. More than 70 percent of the county's $1.6 billion budget goes to education.

For yesterday's presentation, county officials calculated a $53 million boost in school spending, primarily to account for the additional students. But the figure does not take into account rising energy costs, inflation or cost-of-living salary increases for teachers.

The School Board will not tackle its budget until early next year, said Robert F. DuPree Jr. (Dulles), its chairman

"Our side of the equation is: What are our educational needs?" DuPree said. "We will craft our budget based on what we think the needs are and keeping in mind what the situation is for taxpayers."

Some supervisors said the $53 million, which would keep the per-pupil allocation equivalent to this year, might be too high.

"That's probably all you're going to get out of me, and maybe not even that much," said Supervisor Stevens Miller (D-Dulles).