Warner Leads Gilmore By 30 Points, Poll Finds

Warner is demonstrating unusual strength for a statewide Democratic candidate among several key groups that often decide elections in Virginia. Independents favor Warner by better than 2 to 1, and he is drawing support from two-thirds of voters who say they are moderate. Warner holds a 14-point lead among white voters, a demographic that often sides with the GOP in statewide races.

Dan Bailey, 25, a contractor from Newport News, said he plans to support McCain and Warner.

"What really makes a difference to me is fiscal responsibility, and I find that John McCain is far more fiscally responsible than Barack Obama," Bailey said. "As far as the Senate race, I find that Gilmore had a chance with the state funds, and they just didn't do it right, while Mark Warner did a fantastic job balancing the budget."

Bailey's comments reflect how Virginia's Senate race has largely centered on the candidates' records as governor, instead of the federal issues each would face in Washington.

Warner, who has a multimillion-dollar campaign advertising budget, has contended that Gilmore nearly bankrupt the state by trying to repeal the car tax. Warner, who succeeded Gilmore, said he inherited a $6 billion budget shortfall that forced him to slash state spending and push through a $1.4 billion tax increase in 2004.

Gilmore counters that the state budget was in balance when he left office, noting that the state constitution does not allow for deficit spending.

Warner's message, however, appears to be resonating to a greater extent than Gilmore's. Among voters who lived in Virginia during both administrations, two-thirds say they are supporting the Democrat in the race.

Interviews with nearly a dozen Virginia voters questioned in the poll highlighted how the budget debate -- not Warner's and Gilmore's views on federal issues -- are shaping their opinions.

Virginia Martin, 52, a special education teacher from Chesapeake, said she is supporting Warner because "he did a very, very good job in office when he took over the financial situation from Gilmore."

"I thought Gilmore misrepresented when he was talking about reducing the car tax," Martin said. "Of course, that sounded great, but he left office with a debt that Mark Warner inherited."

But W. R. Barney, 69, a small businessman from Frederick County, said he is "reluctantly" supporting Gilmore because Warner raised taxes.

"My complaint with Warner is he rammed through a sales tax on Virginians based on a lie," Barney said. "He claimed we were having a budget problem, but he knew there was going to be a surplus."

Almost no voters interviewed could point to a specific federal issue that is causing them to vote for or against Gilmore or Warner.

Warner, for example, is a supporter of abortion rights and has said he is unlikely to vote to confirm a judge who wants to overturn Roe v. Wade. Gilmore opposes abortion rights after the eighth week of pregnancy and has vowed to vote to confirm Supreme Court justices willing to overturn Roe.

Despite those clear differences, voters who believe abortion should be illegal in all or most instances would vote for Gilmore by 48 percent to 41 percent. Those same voters support McCain over Obama by better than 2 to 1.

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted Sept. 18-21 among a random sample of 1,001 Virginia adults, including 857 registered voters and 698 likely voters. Results from the full poll and among registered voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. Among likely voters, the margin of error is four points.