Aiming for Stars, Entrepreneurs May Also Fill Gaps

Space experts say few Americans know that NASA is intent on privatizing space transport -- most assume that anything to do with exploring space and sending humans there remains the agency's domain.

However, the U.S. space scene was quickly changing well before the question of Russia's availability as a space partner became so important. Experts generally agree that many future American astronauts and cargo shipments will be carried on privately built rockets -- the "new space" paradigm that has already transformed the launching of satellites and, some believe, that will eventually make some space entrepreneurs staggeringly rich.

Richard Branson's Virgin Galactic space tourism project, for instance, is moving forward quickly, as are plans by Robert Bigelow -- a Las Vegas hotel magnate, UFO researcher and space enthusiast -- to put a private space station-hotel into orbit. They and others have much grander plans, as well.

But many of the companies will need a government boost to succeed. Congress embraced the notion in 2004 when it established a five-year, $500 million Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program to encourage private companies to build rockets and spacecraft designed to carry cargo to and from the space station. The program pays the companies only when they meet specified milestones for raising funds, designing and testing rockets and capsules, and finally conducting test launches.

Ready to Rendezvous

COTS has had a mixed record, and one company has already been disqualified because it fell behind in meeting its milestones. But the two companies currently working with the program -- SpaceX and Orbital Sciences Corporation of Dulles -- say they expect to have spacecraft ready to rendezvous with the station between 2011 and 2015. Musk goes further, saying that with financial support through COTS, he could also have a spaceship able to carry a seven-member crew to the space station by late 2011.

"Our rockets and capsules were designed from the start to be human-rated," Musk said, though his company has yet to tackle the costly job of creating a launch-abort system to protect astronauts at takeoff. "We've been working with NASA on all the technical aspects of carrying a crew and docking at the station with them, and we see no reason why we can't do it."

NASA's Griffin, however, is skeptical that SpaceX will be ready for human spaceflight anytime soon, though he says he greatly respects Musk and believes that the company will be able to haul cargo to and from the space station by 2015. In any case, NASA currently has no funds to support private manned spaceflight efforts; indeed, the agency is struggling to pay for its own new spacecraft, which it hopes to have ready by 2015.

The prospect of private (though initially government-subsidized) human spaceflight is popular in Congress. The House overwhelmingly passed a bill this summer that would add between $50 million and $150 million to NASA's budget for a private program, but the stalemate between President Bush and Congress over discretionary funding makes it unlikely to pass this year.

In the view of David Logsdon, executive director of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's Space Enterprise Council, the need for greater investment in private space endeavors is increasingly pressing.

"Looking especially at the situation in Russia today, this is obviously something we should have done long before," he said. "It's quite clear by now that the commercial side is essential for us to remain the world leader in space."

Logsdon said NASA's long-range plan to build a settlement on the moon also needs much greater private involvement, and he has been working with the agency to make that happen.

"Without the commercial side, the whole program is doomed to fail," he said. "Commercial needs to have a vital role from beginning to end, and NASA needs to make many more on-ramps for that involvement."

Musk, born in South Africa and now enthusiastically pro-American, agrees. He said he founded SpaceX and has plowed so much money into it because the NASA-based "old space" model was too limited. He hopes to take his company public after he proves its capabilities.

"What I wanted to do," he said, "was to help make the United States a truly space-faring civilization."