Obama, McCain Saturating Va. With TV Ads

By Tim Craig
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, October 5, 2008

RICHMOND -- Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain are spending nearly $300,000 a day on local television advertising in Virginia, according to an independent analyst, with Obama far outspending McCain as they gear up for the final month of the presidential campaign.

With Democrats and Republicans agreeing that the contest is essentially tied in Virginia, the campaign for the commonwealth's 13 electoral votes is accelerating. The rivals also are blanketing the state with direct mail and other ads.

Obama, a senator from Illinois, has targeted Virginia relentlessly, believing it will be almost impossible for McCain, a senator from Arizona, to win the White House on Nov. 4 if he loses the historically conservative state.

Obama's strategy appears to be paying off, officials in both parties say. On Wednesday, McCain campaign officials announced that they are diverting more resources to Virginia, which last voted for a Democratic presidential nominee in 1964.

"We feel good, and we are doubling the size of the field staff and offices in Virginia . . . and that is a reflection of the energy and support we have seen in Virginia," said Mike DuHaime, McCain's political director.

But the closeness of the race in a state President Bush won by 262,000 votes four years ago alarms some Virginia Republicans, who concede that Obama is running a strong campaign.

Several recent polls show varying leads, ranging from a 9-percentage-point Obama advantage to a 3-point McCain edge.

"I think the seesaw is going to continue, and I just hope we are on top of the seesaw when the election rolls around," said Del. Jeffrey M. Frederick (Prince William), chairman of the Virginia Republican Party.

Obama, Democrats say, has built one of the most aggressive campaigns in modern Virginia history and plans to use his organization on Election Day to try to spark a record turnout.

Yesterday, with a Navy ship as a backdrop, Obama drew thousands to a rally in Newport News on the banks of the James River, his second large event in Virginia in a week. His running mate, Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D-Del.), was scheduled to make appearances today in Roanoke and Henrico County in suburban Richmond but canceled because of a serious illness in his family.

There are now about 60 Democratic offices open across the state, including Senate candidate Mark R. Warner's. They are staffed by thousands of volunteers and about 200 paid workers.

"This is absolutely the largest, most comprehensive, most aggressive presidential campaign I have ever seen in Virginia," Democratic strategist Mo Elleithee said.

Obama's efforts in Virginia are apparent on the airwaves.

From mid-June until last week, Obama spent about $9 million on TV ads in Virginia, compared with McCain's $5 million.

Obama is now spending about $250,000 a day on local network TV in Virginia, compared with McCain's $30,000, according to Evan Tracey, president of the Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks ad buys.

The TV advertising imbalance is being partially offset by the Republican National Committee, which began a $33,000-a-day media buy in areas of Virginia outside the Washington market, Tracey said.

McCain spent heavily on local network TV in Northern Virginia earlier in the year, but he has pulled advertising from those stations and is bolstering his presence in Hampton Roads.

"Obviously, I think they had to make a resource decision," Tracey said. "He has to make sure he has resources to match Obama at the end of the campaign. . . . But it's a gamble, because Northern Virginia is where races are won and lost."

Trey Walker, McCain's mid-Atlantic regional director, said the decision was strategic and not about resources. The campaign has shifted its Northern Virginia ads to local cable stations to help target specific voter blocs. McCain and Obama also are on the air on national network TV.

"We are at parity, saturation-wise in Northern Virginia, with the Obama campaign," Walker said. "We are using a tactic we need to turn out voters on Election Day. Clearly, when you are doing cable television buys, you can target certain demographics you are unable to do on local" television.

McCain's campaign also is opening a dozen new offices and will be increasing its paid staff in the state to 50, DuHaime said.

Although Obama and Biden have appeared jointly or separately in the state almost a dozen times since mid-summer, McCain and his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, have appeared only once, at a rally last month in Fairfax City.

McCain is instead relying on surrogates and local party committees to drum up enthusiasm for his campaign. Joe McCain, the candidate's brother, headlined a "Veterans for McCain" rally yesterday in Loudoun County.

Obama surrogates also are blanketing the state.

Democrats are emboldened by several recent polls. Obama has opened up a 20-point lead in Northern Virginia, according to polls by Washington Post-ABC News, CNN/TIME and Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc.

In the 2005 race for governor and the 2006 Senate campaign, Democrats Timothy M. Kaine and James Webb, respectively, were propelled to victory after they racked up 20-point margins in Northern Virginia.

Some party officials say Obama is starting to make inroads in rural parts of the state.

"For years, it has been socially and culturally unacceptable for white working-class males to vote for a Democrat, and I am hearing a lot of them say, 'I'm voting for Obama,' and that shows me there is some movement," said Democratic strategist Dave "Mudcat" Saunders, who specializes in targeting rural voters.

But Dick Leggitt, a GOP strategist and senior adviser to Republican Senate candidate James S. Gilmore III, said the McCain campaign is working hard to turn out the party base through phone calls, mailings and targeted radio spots. The historical surge for GOP candidates from rural areas and military communities in Hampton Roads will be enough to pull out a victory, he said.

Still, some Virginia Republicans say McCain and Palin need to start campaigning in the state.

"I know McCain sleeps here a lot," said Frederick, referring to McCain's condominium in Arlington County. "We need him to come back and campaign here, because the Republican grass roots are hungry to have him."

Other Virginia Republicans say McCain, who is trailing in national polls, doesn't have the luxury to spend time in a state the GOP has carried for decades.

"McCain advisers feel if he isn't going to win Virginia, he probably isn't going to win the election anyway," said James E. Hyland, chairman of the Fairfax County Republican Party.