Nebraska Becomes Unlikely Battleground

The Obama campaign insisted it's in town for the duration, and it announced Friday that it will open a second Omaha office this week.

Where Republicans see folly, the Obama camp spots an opening. Unlike most of Nebraska, the 2nd District has a significant minority population, with a population that is 10 percent black and 6 percent Hispanic -- groups that strongly back Obama.

The median household income in the district is about $45,000. A recent Washington Post poll showed that Obama leads by 54 percent to 41 percent among all U.S. voters with household incomes under $50,000, although McCain holds a similar advantage among white voters in that category.

Democrats point out that a political newcomer -- 30-year-old businessman Jim Esch -- won 45 percent of the vote against Terry in 2006. Esch is running again this year, and party leaders like his chances well enough that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is contributing to his effort.

The Obama campaign also hopes to benefit from the retail politicking of Sen. Ben Nelson, a Democrat who has found ways to win statewide, and the influence of Sen. Chuck Hagel, a Republican war veteran who has criticized McCain and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

And while the Obama campaign only recently arrived in force, residents have seen a year's worth of Obama advertisements directed at voters in nearby Council Bluffs, Iowa, that also air in Omaha. Obama drew 10,000 people to a Feb. 7 rally here, shortly before he swamped Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton by 35 percentage points in the Nebraska caucuses.

There are potential signs of progress for Democrats. A large Republican registration advantage in Douglas County, which makes up the bulk of the 2nd District, has nearly evaporated. As of Sept. 1, Democrats had added 8,500 voters this year, while Republican registration had grown by just 108, closing the gap to around 4,000. About 58,000 voters in the county consider themselves as independents.

Those figures were recorded before the Obama campaign opened its Omaha office -- 1,113 people showed up to volunteer on the first day -- and do not reflect the recent registration efforts.

"We're certainly seeing more registrations coming in as we get closer and closer to the election," said Dave Phipps (R), election commissioner in Douglas County, who is predicting record turnout.

Phipps is the rare Republican who says publicly that Obama has a shot in the district. "It's going to be a tough battle," he said. "Swaying Republicans in Nebraska is pretty hard, but there is a significant number of nonpartisans who are up for the taking."

Phipps added that grass-roots groups not connected to Obama are mobilizing voters in Democratic precincts, particularly student enclaves and largely black neighborhoods in north Omaha where turnout is typically low.

Nonetheless, experts expect it will take a dramatic pro-Obama turnout in Omaha and its inner suburbs to overcome the expected strong Republican advantage in more rural and conservative Sarpy County, which lies partly in the 2nd District. There, Republicans outnumber Democrats by 10,000.