10 Steps Through Virginia to the White House

5) Does Keith Fimian, the GOP nominee for Congress in the 11th District, start trying to put some distance between himself and McCain?

The 11th Congressional District, which includes parts of Fairfax and Prince William counties, has been rapidly trending Democratic in recent statewide elections.

In 2004, Bush carried it by less than one percentage point. Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) carried it by 13 percentage points one year later. Webb won it by 10 percentage points in 2006.

If Obama starts approaching Kaine and Webb margins, he will have a good shot at winning the state, and Fimian will have a hard time prevailing in his race against Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Chairman Gerald E. Connolly (D) without distancing himself from McCain.

6) How many times does a representative of either campaign visit your house?

The number of visits by a canvasser from the Obama or McCain campaign is a good indication of what kind of get-out-the-vote effort each side will wage in your neighborhood on Election Day.

7) What is Kaine's real approval rating?

A Washington Post poll published late last month had Kaine's approval rating at 66 percent. A Mason-Dixon Polling & Research poll published Sunday had it at 54 percent. Kaine is a big Obama supporter. If Kaine's approval rating is 66 percent, he might have some sway in turning votes for Obama. But if it's 54 percent, he probably won't.