10 Steps Through Virginia to the White House

By Tim Craig
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, October 9, 2008

RICHMOND

With less than one month to go until the Nov. 4 elections, Virginia is shaping up to be a make-or-break state for John McCain's hopes of winning the White House.

Despite the state's long history of supporting GOP presidential nominees, Barack Obama appears to have made major inroads in his battle to win Virginia's 13 electoral votes.

Several recent polls show Obama tied or narrowly leading McCain, which is making Republicans nervous. Yet this is still Virginia, a historically conservative state that last backed a Democratic nominee in 1964. So Obama will have to fight hard until the end, regardless of what the polls say. McCain hopes to make up some ground Monday when he and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, attend a rally in Virginia Beach and she goes on to a rally in Richmond.

But here are 10 things to watch over the next month to help gauge whether McCain or Obama will have the upper hand on Election Day.

1) What role does Mark R. Warner play for Obama?

Warner, the Democratic candidate for Senate, remains one of Virginia's most popular politicians. According to polls, he holds a 30-point lead over Republican James S. Gilmore III in the battle of the former governors. In 2006, Warner played a key role in helping Sen. James Webb (D) get across the finish line in his campaign. Warner starred in a Webb television ad that was widely aired.

Many Democrats say they think Warner can play an equally important role for Obama this year, especially in rural Virginia, where some voters might have doubts about the Illinois senator. Warner's staff is working diligently behind the scenes in support of Obama, but it's unclear how public the candidate will be with his support. Even though he has a big lead over Gilmore, Warner is still hoping to attract support from moderate Republicans. Those voters could shun Warner if he takes a high-profile role in Obama's campaign.

2) What does Sen. John W. Warner do on behalf of McCain?

John Warner is another Virginia politician who has a reputation for being able to move some undecided voters, especially moderate Republicans and voters in Hampton Roads. In 2006, Warner tried desperately to shore up Republican George Allen in his race against Webb but came up short. John Warner is a big McCain supporter, and has had several conference calls with reporters to tout his candidacy. If the retiring senator takes a more high-profile role, such as appearing in a television ad, he could keep some independents and moderate Republicans from defecting to Obama.

3) What is the state of Richmond's banking industry?

Four of the top 12 employers in Richmond are affiliated with the finance industry. Capitol One, Bank of America, SunTrust and Wachovia employ a combined 20,000 people, according to the Richmond Times-Dispatch. Many of them live in suburban Richmond, where Republicans have traditionally racked up huge margins on Election Day.

But with the credit crisis, Richmond's banking industry could suffer. The economic uncertainty might cause some traditional GOP voters to migrate toward Obama. If Obama eats into historical GOP margins in places such as Chesterfield County, it will be nearly impossible for McCain to win statewide.

4) How many absentee ballots from service members are being returned to Hampton Roads?

Hampton Roads is home to the world's largest naval base, and service members can play a big role in the outcome of presidential contests there.

In 2004, large numbers of military members serving overseas voted by absentee ballot, and they appeared to overwhelmingly support President Bush.

There are signs this year that Obama has made some inroads with this group. Troops serving abroad have given Obama six times as much money as they have McCain, according to the Center for Responsive Politics and USA Today.

But the voting could still work in McCain's favor, meaning that a surge in absentee ballots from overseas could bode well for his chances statewide.

5) Does Keith Fimian, the GOP nominee for Congress in the 11th District, start trying to put some distance between himself and McCain?

The 11th Congressional District, which includes parts of Fairfax and Prince William counties, has been rapidly trending Democratic in recent statewide elections.

In 2004, Bush carried it by less than one percentage point. Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) carried it by 13 percentage points one year later. Webb won it by 10 percentage points in 2006.

If Obama starts approaching Kaine and Webb margins, he will have a good shot at winning the state, and Fimian will have a hard time prevailing in his race against Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Chairman Gerald E. Connolly (D) without distancing himself from McCain.

6) How many times does a representative of either campaign visit your house?

The number of visits by a canvasser from the Obama or McCain campaign is a good indication of what kind of get-out-the-vote effort each side will wage in your neighborhood on Election Day.

7) What is Kaine's real approval rating?

A Washington Post poll published late last month had Kaine's approval rating at 66 percent. A Mason-Dixon Polling & Research poll published Sunday had it at 54 percent. Kaine is a big Obama supporter. If Kaine's approval rating is 66 percent, he might have some sway in turning votes for Obama. But if it's 54 percent, he probably won't.

8) How many newly registered voters are there in Brunswick County in southern Virginia?

African Americans make up 56 percent of the population in the county, but they have historically low registration and turnout rates. There are 12,000 people of voting age in the county, but only about 7,000 people voted in the 2004 election. Between Jan. 1 and Sept. 30, 487 residents registered to vote. If that number grows significantly when final registration numbers are released this month, it could mean that Obama's efforts to register black voters in Southside have been successful.

9) What are the final poll numbers in Hampton Roads?

Opinion polls in Hampton Roads have been very inconsistent. Some show Obama with a double-digit lead in that key swing area. Others show him with a narrow advantage. Still others show Obama and McCain tied. The polls that show Obama up in Hampton Roads also have him leading statewide. Those that have him tied in Hampton Roads show a tied race statewide.

10) Do Democratic officials in southwest Virginia get fully behind Obama?

Virginia Democratic leaders say they are having a hard time getting some party officials in that part of the state enthused about Obama. If that problem persists, it could mean that Obama could do even worse than Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) did in rural Virginia in 2004. If that occurs, McCain will probably carry the state.