A Student Surge In Inner Suburbs

Fewer Families Moving Away in Tough Economy

Schools in Washington's inner suburbs have put more seats in classrooms this fall as economic and demographic shifts bring a windfall of new students.

Fairfax County officials drew a connection between declining home sales and the decreasing number of students who leave the county. Montgomery County officials cited an unusually large influx of students from private schools and said fewer students are moving out of the county. In Arlington County and Alexandria, school officials suggested that fewer families are trading in townhouses or condominiums for single-family homes in outer suburbs.

"In difficult economic times, people tend to stay put," said Margaret Byess, executive director of financial services for Alexandria schools.

The Fairfax school system, the region's largest, expanded more than 2 percent, reaching about 169,000 students in a preliminary count of fall enrollment. Montgomery's enrollment climbed more than 1 percent, to 139,400, the first significant increase in six years for the region's second-largest school system. In Alexandria, enrollment grew 6 percent to about 11,200; in Arlington, it grew 4.5 percent, to about 19,500.

Prince George's County schools held comparatively steady, with about 129,500 students after several years of notable decline. The county system had slipped from 137,285 students in 2003 to 129,752 last year.

The Sept. 30 enrollment figures are expected to be finalized later in fall. School officials say the signs of a rebound appear to be driven by the economy and, in particular, the real estate market.

Stephen S. Fuller, director of the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University, agreed that the "trade-up market" for houses has slowed, limiting migration. But he added that families are continuing to move into neighborhoods near the city. The region continues to generate jobs, and young professionals with children tend to move closer in at first, as do many new immigrants drawn to rental apartments.

Enrollment in the District's regular public schools is estimated to be down more than 8 percent, to about 45,000, while D.C. public charter school enrollment is rising.

Schools in the outer suburbs are growing, though more slowly than previously. Prince William County schools grew by 1.4 percent this year, to about 73,700 students, a much smaller shift than in recent years. Loudoun County enrollment rose 5.5 percent, to about 57,000. That is the region's fastest rate of growth, but it is down from about 6.5 percent in 2007. Sam C. Adamo, director of planning and legislative services for Loudoun schools, said he expects the growth rate to continue to slow.

Enrollment rose slightly in Howard County (about 48,900), Anne Arundel County (about 73,700) and Charles County (about 26,700). Calvert County schools were down about 300 students, to 16,700. St. Mary's County enrollment figures were unavailable.

Closer to Washington, the turnaround in enrollment took some systems by surprise. Alexandria expected about 100 new students and got more than 600. Arlington banked on about 400 additional students and got twice that number. Montgomery budgeted for minimal growth and ended up with more than 1,650 new students.

The influx is likely to strain schools as they stretch their budgets to serve more students. Many systems have been forced to tap reserves to hire new teachers or reallocate positions from under-enrolled schools to overenrolled schools. The bottom line in many areas will be slightly larger classes.

The additional students also will raise costs in the next budget year as schools factor them in as resources are shrinking.

"In a time of decreasing resources and budget crisis, this is increasing the stress we are under to figure this all out," said Dean Tistadt, chief operating officer for the Fairfax school system, which is facing a $150 million shortfall.