Va. Democrats' Surprising Plan: Call Bill Clinton

If Obama fails to get at least 40 percent of the votes in Southwest Virginia on Nov. 4, many Democrats believe he will have trouble winning statewide. Democrats are also concerned that Obama is underperforming in small towns in the Shenandoah Valley that historically support their candidates.

"It's obvious they are trying to get those Democrats who voted for Hillary Clinton back, and they have a lot of work to do in the western part of the state," said Larry J. Sabato, a political science professor at the University of Virginia.

Pete Brodnitz, a Democratic pollster who works for Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D), said Clinton will help alleviate any concerns voters have over Obama's experience and validate his perceived strength on handling the economy.

"In times like this, I think a lot of people probably are looking forward to what he has to say," Brodnitz said. "Regardless of what people think of Bill Clinton, everyone knows he produced a very good economy."

Democratic polls show Bill Clinton's approval rating in Southwest Virginia topping 60 percent, which is far higher than Obama's. But there are risks associated with having Clinton on the campaign trail in Virginia.

Some political strategists believe that the reason Obama did so well in Virginia during the primaries was that some voters -- including some independents and Republicans who took a Democratic ballot -- were driven to the polls to vote against Hillary and Bill Clinton.

And Clinton remains a lightning rod for social conservatives, who might be energized to show up on Election Day if they see the former president campaigning for Obama.

"I don't think he has any pull in Virginia," said former lieutenant governor John H. Hager, a past chairman of the Virginia Republican Party. "Maybe the [Democrats] are feeling a bit cocky, but I don't see it."

Gail Gitcho, a spokeswoman for McCain's Virginia campaign, agreed. "We welcome Bill Clinton to Virginia," she said. "Given Bill Clinton's past comments on Obama's inexperience to lead as president and his bad judgment on the Iraq war, coupled with his comments on John McCain's strong leadership, it should be an interesting campaign swing."

State Sen. R. Edward Houck (D-Spotsylvania) said he doesn't see any downside in Obama bringing Clinton into Virginia.

"The anti-Clinton voters are not going to be Obama voters to begin with," Houck said. "This is about Democrats now being comfortable about being Democrats."

Without a doubt, Clinton's visit today will mark an evolution of his appeal in the state.

In 1993, the year Clinton was sworn in, Republican George Allen was elected governor, in part as a backlash to Clinton's presidency, Sabato said. The next year, then-Sen. Charles J. Robb (D) had to fight hard to fend off Republican Oliver North in a year in which Clinton was a drag on Democrats nationwide, especially in the South.

In his reelection campaign in 2000, Robb needed Clinton's help to draw black voters to the polls. Clinton campaigned for Robb at a black church in Alexandria, but Robb wasn't there.

At the time, 44 percent of Virginia voters had a favorable opinion of Clinton, according to a Washington Post poll then. Robb lost his Senate seat to Allen.

The next year, Democrat Mark R. Warner was elected governor, but he had rarely mentioned Clinton on the campaign trail.

"There were lots of discussions about the pluses and minuses of bringing [Clinton] to Virginia, but ultimately most of the time the conclusion was it was probably not worth the risk," said Lawrence H. Framme III, who was chairman of the Virginia Democratic Party from 2001 to 2003.