Once-Shunned Former President To Shore Up Support for Obama
By Tim Craig
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, October 12, 2008
RICHMOND -- A decade ago, Virginia Republicans would joke that their easiest path to victory on Election Day was getting the Democrats to have President Bill Clinton campaign for them.
Virginia Democrats rarely obliged, but they still took a series of punishing defeats during the 1990s because many voters in southern and central Virginia had a decidedly negative impression of the former president.
Today, Virginia Democrats hope to turn that joke around on the GOP when Clinton holds rallies in Roanoke and Richmond in support of Sen. Barack Obama's presidential campaign. Virginia Democrats say Clinton's campaign swing through Virginia, which is aimed at voters in the largely rural and suburban Richmond and Roanoke television markets, underscores how the state's political climate and the former president's image have changed dramatically since he left office in 2001.
With Virginia shaping up as a key battleground in Obama's race against GOP nominee John McCain, the fact that Democrats now consider Clinton an asset also illustrates how the nationwide economic crisis is a key issue in the presidential campaign.
"It does show a change of the times and how things are different in Virginia than they were a decade ago," said Lewis F. Payne, a Democrat who represented south central Virginia in Congress from 1988 to 1997. "Then, I guess Clinton would not have considered coming into downstate Virginia, nor would have anyone asked."
During Clinton's presidency, Democrats lost two successive governor's races, four congressional seats and more than a dozen legislative seats.
"There is no question Republicans were on an ascendancy in this part of the state when he was president," said House Majority Leader H. Morgan Griffith (R-Salem), who noted that the GOP went from 41 to 52 House of Delegate seats between 1992 and 2001.
Since Clinton left office, Virginia Democrats have been the party on the upswing, including winning two consecutive governor's races, the 2006 Senate race and taking control of the state Senate last year.
This year, Obama is hoping to keep the Democratic winning streak alive by becoming the first Democratic nominee since 1964 to carry Virginia. If Obama can win the state's 13 electoral votes, Democrats believe it will be almost impossible for McCain to win the White House.
Despite the well-publicized hard feelings between the two men during the primaries, Obama might need Clinton's help in the state. At his two rallies, Clinton will try to shore up Obama's support among white working-class voters who are hesitant to back the Democratic ticket. He also will remind voters about his belief that Obama is best suited to manage the economy, campaign officials say.
"I think for a lot of people he is a very powerful reminder of what America was like when government was working for them," said Kevin Griffis, an Obama spokesman. "It was a time when people's incomes were rising, it was easier to send their kids to school and government was running balanced budgets instead of deficits."
Even though Obama carried Virginia by 30 points in the state's Feb. 12 primary, his Democratic opponent, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), ran strong in many rural communities west of the Allegheny Mountains. Some of her supporters are threatening to back McCain, according to Democratic leaders.
If Obama fails to get at least 40 percent of the votes in Southwest Virginia on Nov. 4, many Democrats believe he will have trouble winning statewide. Democrats are also concerned that Obama is underperforming in small towns in the Shenandoah Valley that historically support their candidates.
"It's obvious they are trying to get those Democrats who voted for Hillary Clinton back, and they have a lot of work to do in the western part of the state," said Larry J. Sabato, a political science professor at the University of Virginia.
Pete Brodnitz, a Democratic pollster who works for Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D), said Clinton will help alleviate any concerns voters have over Obama's experience and validate his perceived strength on handling the economy.
"In times like this, I think a lot of people probably are looking forward to what he has to say," Brodnitz said. "Regardless of what people think of Bill Clinton, everyone knows he produced a very good economy."
Democratic polls show Bill Clinton's approval rating in Southwest Virginia topping 60 percent, which is far higher than Obama's. But there are risks associated with having Clinton on the campaign trail in Virginia.
Some political strategists believe that the reason Obama did so well in Virginia during the primaries was that some voters -- including some independents and Republicans who took a Democratic ballot -- were driven to the polls to vote against Hillary and Bill Clinton.
And Clinton remains a lightning rod for social conservatives, who might be energized to show up on Election Day if they see the former president campaigning for Obama.
"I don't think he has any pull in Virginia," said former lieutenant governor John H. Hager, a past chairman of the Virginia Republican Party. "Maybe the [Democrats] are feeling a bit cocky, but I don't see it."
Gail Gitcho, a spokeswoman for McCain's Virginia campaign, agreed. "We welcome Bill Clinton to Virginia," she said. "Given Bill Clinton's past comments on Obama's inexperience to lead as president and his bad judgment on the Iraq war, coupled with his comments on John McCain's strong leadership, it should be an interesting campaign swing."
State Sen. R. Edward Houck (D-Spotsylvania) said he doesn't see any downside in Obama bringing Clinton into Virginia.
"The anti-Clinton voters are not going to be Obama voters to begin with," Houck said. "This is about Democrats now being comfortable about being Democrats."
Without a doubt, Clinton's visit today will mark an evolution of his appeal in the state.
In 1993, the year Clinton was sworn in, Republican George Allen was elected governor, in part as a backlash to Clinton's presidency, Sabato said. The next year, then-Sen. Charles J. Robb (D) had to fight hard to fend off Republican Oliver North in a year in which Clinton was a drag on Democrats nationwide, especially in the South.
In his reelection campaign in 2000, Robb needed Clinton's help to draw black voters to the polls. Clinton campaigned for Robb at a black church in Alexandria, but Robb wasn't there.
At the time, 44 percent of Virginia voters had a favorable opinion of Clinton, according to a Washington Post poll then. Robb lost his Senate seat to Allen.
The next year, Democrat Mark R. Warner was elected governor, but he had rarely mentioned Clinton on the campaign trail.
"There were lots of discussions about the pluses and minuses of bringing [Clinton] to Virginia, but ultimately most of the time the conclusion was it was probably not worth the risk," said Lawrence H. Framme III, who was chairman of the Virginia Democratic Party from 2001 to 2003.
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