The World Vote

Barack Obama is almost universally favored over John McCain outside the United States. Should that matter to Americans?

BY NOW it is well known that if the rest of the world had a vote, Barack Obama would be the next U.S. president. Polls and studies by the Pew foundation, BBC and the Gallup organization have shown that Europeans, Latin Americans, Africans and Asians not only favor Mr. Obama overwhelmingly over John McCain but believe he will improve U.S. relations with the rest of the world. Americans seem to be attracted by such findings; polls here show that many voters are concerned about the deterioration of U.S. prestige during the Bush administration and want the next president to restore it. This invites a question: If Mr. Obama were elected, how likely would he be to fulfill those high expectations? And could he really deliver results that are beyond the grasp of Mr. McCain? The answer is not as obvious as the survey results suggest.

One caveat comes in the report of the Pew Global Attitudes Project, which points out that Obamamania is largely absent in the region where U.S. influence most needs a boost: the Middle East. Only 34 percent of Lebanese, 31 percent of Egyptians and 22 percent of Jordanians said they have confidence in Mr. Obama to do the right thing in world affairs; in Pakistan the figure was 10 percent. Israel is one of the few countries in the world where at least some polls have shown Mr. McCain leading Mr. Obama. Many Israelis fear that Mr. Obama will be too soft on Iran; many Arabs predict that he will be too soft on Israel. The new administration, whether that of Mr. Obama or Mr. McCain, may have to accept anti-Americanism in Pakistan as the price of staying on the offensive against al-Qaeda and the Taliban.

Mr. Obama's huge popularity in Western Europe -- his favorable ratings are over 80 percent in France and Germany -- seems to reflect an expectation that the Democrat would reverse the policies of President Bush. But Mr. Obama favors sending large numbers of additional troops to Afghanistan, while public opinion in every NATO country but Britain favors withdrawal. At the governmental level, some senior officials in Germany, France and Britain say that they object to Mr. Obama's plan to pursue negotiations with Iran unconditionally; the European policy has been to require Tehran first to suspend work on its nuclear program. Both Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain are likely to alleviate two of the largest irritants in U.S.-European relations by closing the Guantanamo Bay prison and adopting a serious program to combat climate change.

The outpouring of enthusiasm for Mr. Obama in places such as Berlin -- where a smaller share of people say they have favorable views of the United States than in Russia or China -- seems to reflect a longing to repair a broken relationship. An Obama presidency offers the possibility of building on those sentiments. Mr. McCain would have to start cold. Neither may have a good chance of obtaining more European troops for Afghanistan or major new sanctions against Iran. But on the intangible but critical question of American prestige and the willingness to accept U.S. leadership that comes with it, Mr. Obama has more to offer.