Canadian Leader Faces Election Test
Harper Hopes Foe's Carbon Tax Flops

By Rob Gillies
Associated Press
Monday, October 13, 2008

TORONTO, Oct. 12 -- Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper is gambling that an opposition pushing an unpopular carbon tax will steer voters to the right in Tuesday's election and bolster his hold on power.

If the polls are any indication, though, Canada's third national ballot in a little more than four years will give the country yet another minority government.

The opposition Liberals have traditionally been the party in power in Ottawa, forming the government for more than two-thirds of the past 100 years.

But voters went for Harper's Conservatives in 2006, albeit not in sufficient numbers to give the party an outright majority in the 308-seat Parliament. That forced the Conservatives to rely on the opposition to pass budgets and legislation until Harper dissolved Parliament last month.

In the election campaign, opponents have portrayed the prime minister as someone who would reshape the landscape in the manner of a U.S.-style Republican, a charge Harper rejects.

"Just because someone's a Conservative doesn't mean he's George Bush," Harper told voters in Quebec on Saturday.

The signature issue of Liberal leader Stéphane Dion is a proposal for a carbon tax on all fossil fuels except gasoline.

Conservatives say the "Green Shift" tax plan would drive up energy costs. Dion has said he would offset the higher energy prices by cutting income taxes, but he has had little success selling the plan.

Harper, meanwhile, hurt his cause by saying during a debate that Canadians were not concerned about their jobs or their mortgages.

He has since tried to undo the damage by saying he knows Canadians are concerned about the economy. On Sunday, he contrasted Canada's economic and fiscal performance to the United States'.

"Americans are running deficits. We're running surpluses. Americans are incurring debt. We're paying down debt," Harper said. "We have the lowest unemployment rate in 30 years. . . . We have a better economic situation than the United States because, for 2 1/2 years, we have made better choices."

Recent polls show Harper is rebounding. A Harris-Decima poll put voter support for Conservatives at 35 percent, the Liberals at 26 percent and the New Democrats at 18 percent. The left-of-center vote is divided among four parties, which may allow Harper to win a majority government even with less than 40 percent of the overall vote.