Gray Vote No Longer Reliably Red

"Our people are too old to show up at some park and sit on the ground," Williams says. "You can't take our vote for granted. These people here are darned independent."

She rings the bell of a house with a Jaguar in the garage and flowering jasmine wrapped around a lamppost. The woman who answers the door makes a grave forecast for the Republican Party:

"I'm for these guys, but I don't think they'll win."

Trying to Decide

With his $25 allowance in his wallet, Jerry Decker takes the golf cart up to Home Depot. He whirs along the smooth roads, waving to friends, adjusting his baseball cap. Retirees used to move to Sun City Center and pay cash for their houses. Now mortgages are common; more than two dozen homes are in foreclosure.

When Jerry was a boy in the 1930s, his father told him that the bank had come for their furniture because of a missed payment of $2.50, and the lesson stuck with him: Don't rely on the government and don't rely on credit.

What he wants is a commander who will address the country and talk honestly. He and his wife will watch the third and final presidential debate and try to make up their minds. More pieces of the puzzle.

"Jeannie said it best," Jerry says. "She said, 'No one has stood up and said: I made a mistake.' "

He parks the golf cart outside Home Depot and inside he grabs some weedkiller before catching sight of a display of Eco-Smart light bulbs on sale. He looks at the box and checks the sign. "Six forty-five, that's a pretty good price," he says.

At the register, he greets the cashier. "Hello, young lady, can you keep me under $10?"

She smiles. "No, it's $12.97."

When he gets home, Jeanne is setting out their Saturday lunch: half a tuna sandwich each and sliced peaches. "Honey, I brought you a present," he calls, coming through the garage door. "And these were on sale."

Jeannie studies the light bulbs.

The purchase leaves Jerry with $12.03 for the week, but that's his business. "I'll make it," he says. "Oh, sure."

Staff researcher Julie Tate in Washington contributed to this report.