Arduous Transition Awaits Next President

Obama would have to try to influence economic policy while it is still the province of President Bush, whose policies could have lasting effects on an Obama presidency that was supposed to emphasize "change" and "hope."

"He's going to be deferential to an outgoing president, but also not shy about expressing himself," said a senior Democrat involved in transition talks. "I wouldn't be surprised if you see as much visibility post-election as now."

Obama would also have to take steps aimed at fulfilling his promise to bring U.S. troops home from Iraq. To ensure continuity at the Pentagon, he may try to persuade Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates to stay in order to begin designing a plan that establishes the time frame for withdrawal.

How Obama would manage the phase between his election and inauguration could set the tone for his presidency. And in the days after being sworn in, Obama would face opportunities and pitfalls on an immense scale.

He could establish the image of a young, history-making president with a mandate from the country and the backing of a friendly Congress. Or he could appear to be an inexperienced new executive, caught between the demands of Republicans he pledged to consult and newly energized liberals who expect him to make good.

As the stimulus package works its way through Congress, and as the government takes further steps to rescue the faltering financial system, Obama allies believe the president-elect could quickly set the tone for his administration by stepping into a public role on the economy that Bush has given to Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke. Still, Obama advisers were loath to discuss in detail their plans for after the election. McCain has already chastised Obama for "measuring the drapes" in the Oval Office.

"You have to be careful," said New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D). "If anything, McCain has shown to have a lot of different lives. I would caution against a lot of focus on transition."

But mindful of the enormous stakes, Obama's transition team is working intensively on a plan that would both capitalize on his current momentum and make good on his pledges to enact change and set a new tone.

"Any responsible candidate would be planning for the prospect of victory," Axelrod said.

Obama advisers are debating which executive orders he could issue quickly to begin reversing Bush policies such as the ban on federal funding of embryonic stem cell research

In conjunction with his close allies in the Democratic majority, Obama is considering which piece of legislation -- such as an extension of children's health insurance, which failed by just a few votes this past year -- he could push through Congress immediately after Jan. 20 as smaller "down payments" on his larger goals.

Obama has made many promises over the course of nearly two years on the campaign trail: immigration reform; tuition assistance for college students; a rural-issues summit; a new ethics code; and a sweeping review of all of Bush's executive orders. How, or whether, he would be able to tackle such initiatives remains very much an open question both because of the shattered economy and because Obama's aggressiveness in governing is as yet unknown.

For McCain, the period from Election Day through the inauguration would also have an important part of shaping perceptions of his presidency. As part of his campaign's effort to build a case against Obama, the senator from Arizona has argued, as he did at the final debate in New York, that "the next president won't have time to get used to the office. He won't have the luxury of studying up on the issues before he acts. He will have to act immediately."

The advisers declined to comment about how McCain would staff his Cabinet or his White House. But Republicans close to McCain said he has already begun thinking about how to restock Washington with new faces, shedding much of the Bush administration while trying to maintain the necessary stability to deal with ongoing foreign and domestic problems.

But "he's going to reach out beyond the circle he has now," said one confidant. "I don't think he will feel limited at all. He's serious about shaking things up, getting people who have not been in government, new blood."

The first week after Election Day is guaranteed to be a whirlwind. One friend said McCain would "get a good night's sleep." Another joked he would "celebrate the 2,000-point rally" in the Dow Jones industrial average.

But his advisers promised some immediate actions in those first few days aimed at projecting confidence and offering proof that he was following through on his promises: coordination with the Homeland Security Department; a request for a status report on efforts to secure the border; and the announcement that he would send a team of "unofficial observers" to the United Nations Climate Change conference in Poland.

Like any president-elect, McCain would have to tread lightly while Bush finished out his final days. Graham predicted that the pair would treat each other in a "smooth and professional" manner, despite having once been bitter rivals.

McCain advisers say they recognize that there are certain actions they could not take -- for example, ordering Paulson to implement some aspects of McCain's economic recovery plan -- during the transition.

But that has not stopped them from thinking about what he would need to do once Bush left office. While some of the broad policies have been trumpeted by McCain on the campaign trail, his aides last week offered some details about the specific steps he is contemplating taking if he reaches the White House. The advisers said McCain would issue an executive order shutting down the military detention facility at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, appoint a full-time Middle East peace envoy and begin pushing Congress to take an up-or-down vote on a bipartisan plan to control the growth of Medicare spending.

He would act quickly on the economic crisis, sending Congress a new budget with a bevy of proposed tax cuts -- on unemployment benefits, businesses, capital gains and other areas-- while imposing a one-year spending freeze on most federal agencies. He would create a 9/11-style commission to determine the roots of the "regulatory failures" that contributed to the current financial crisis.

On foreign policy, McCain would embark on a listening tour, visiting key allies and partners around the world, a move that would be aimed at rebuilding alliances that they say have frayed during the Bush administration. At the April NATO summit in Strasburg, Germany, he would push to deepen NATO relations with Ukraine and Georgia, a move that would likely bring more conflict with Russia. At the same time, aides are promising that he would quickly commence new negotiations with Russia on reducing nuclear weapons arsenals.

And, they said, he would direct his secretary of defense to begin an immediate personnel expansion of the Army and Marine Corps to a combined 900,000, one-fifth larger than the Bush administration has called for.