The Democrats' Daunting Digits

By Chris Cillizza And Shailagh Murray
Monday, October 20, 2008

Numbers -- like hips -- don't lie.

In a political world increasingly dominated by spin and increasingly dismissive of substance, it's important from time to time to remember that, for all the back-and-forth, sometimes the numbers are the numbers.

The Fix was reminded of this late last week when we got our hands on a document detailing the massive state-by-state voter-registration gains scored by Democrats between the last presidential election and this one. The memo, which was produced by the Atlas Project, a Democratic research and analysis firm, and obtained late last week by The Fix, provided a bunch of eye-opening facts and figures.

To wit:

· In the 13 battleground states that require voters to register by party, there are nearly 1.5 million more Democrats than at this time in 2004. The comparable Republican numbers, by contrast, have fallen by 61,000 during that time.

· Registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by more than 3.3 million in these same 13 battleground states, roughly double the edge -- 1.8 million -- they enjoyed over the GOP four years ago.

· In the 10 battleground states without voter registration by party, total registration has risen by 1.4 million between 2004 and 2008.

· In Florida, there are almost 400,000 more registered Democrats today than in 2004, while Republican registrants have grown by less than 150,000 in that same time. In Pennsylvania, Democratic registration has increased by more than 430,000 since 2004 while GOP registration has gone up by 175,000. And in North Carolina, Democrats have added nearly 175,000 new voters, compared with just under 61,000 for Republicans.

While the above numbers are impressive for Democrats, it's important to remember that simply being registered as a voter for one party or the other doesn't guarantee a vote for Barack Obama or John McCain. Democrats, for decades, have enjoyed voter-registration edges in the South, for example, but have struggled to win these states because of the culturally conservative nature of registered Democrats.

Whether these registration numbers will pay off in actual votes for Obama remains to be seen. But they are yet another testament to the decided tilt of the national playing field toward Democrats this fall.

An Obama Effect in Missouri?

Barack Obama drew 100,000 people in St. Louis on Saturday afternoon, and at least 75,000 people in Kansas City a few hours later. That's very good news for Kay Barnes and Judy Baker.

The two Democrats are trying to win solidly Republican House seats, and the harder Obama works the Show-Me State, the better their chances of scoring upsets.

Baker, a state House member, is competing against banker Blaine Luetkemeyer for the 9th District seat being vacated by Republican Kenny Hulshof, who is running for governor (though trailing state Attorney General Jay Nixon badly in polling). Democratic political analysts said a big Obama turnout in Columbia, home to the University of Missouri, could tip the scale for local resident Baker, even though John Kerry lost the 9th District to President Bush by 59 percent to 41 percent in 2004. Recent polls show a tight race with a large undecided vote.

Barnes faces longer odds in her bid to unseat GOP Rep. Sam Graves in the northwestern 6th District. The former Kansas City mayor is getting a big assist from Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill, who beat GOP incumbent Jim Talent in 2006 in one of that cycle's bigger upsets. Barnes has a shot if turnout is huge in the Kansas City suburbs at the district's edge, and so long as McCain's coattails don't drive new Graves voters to the polls in the more rural parts of the district.

Speaking to reporters after Obama's St. Louis rally on Sunday, McCaskill said the harshly negative turn that McCain's campaign had taken in Missouri, with its blast of anti-Obama robo-calls and direct mail, could repel even the most conservative rural voters.

McCaskill called the tactics "mean," "nasty" and "petty" and added: "The more they do that, the more it's going to chase people to our side."

'Anti-' Maimed?

The ghost of Mike Pappas may be coming back to haunt Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.).

In 1998, Pappas, then a freshman Republican congressman from New Jersey, was cruising to reelection when he took to the House floor to read an homage to independent counsel Kenneth Starr set to the tune of the children's classic "Twinkle, Twinkle, Little Star." Um, not smart. The song caused a national fervor and led directly to Pappas's defeat at the hands of five-time "Jeopardy" champion Rush Holt.

Bachmann could be headed down that same ignominious path after comments she made on MSNBC last week in which she expressed concern that Barack Obama holds "anti-American" views.

The remark, which quickly drew national attention, has re-invigorated Democratic candidate Elwyn Tinklenberg (awesome name!), who has raised more than $600,000 since Bachmann's appearance Friday on "Hardball."

National Democrats, buoyed by an internal poll last week that showed Bachmann leading Tinklenberg by a narrow margin of 42 percent to 38 percent, are pouncing and are set to begin $1 million worth of television advertising in the district tomorrow.

Bachmann, elected in 2006, should have had little trouble holding this suburban Twin Cities district, which President George W. Bush carried in 2004 with 57 percent. But she has been a lightning rod for controversy throughout her first two years in office and is now in the fight of her political life.

Could "anti-American" be the new "Twinkle, Twinkle Kenneth Starr"?

1 DAY: Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton travels to the Twin Cities to campaign with comedian Al Franken (D) in his race against Sen. Norm Coleman (R). "Hillary Clinton is a fighter for the middle class, a champion for change, and a friend and hero of mine," said Franken. Left unsaid: He's good enough, he's smart enough, and doggone it, people like him.

9 DAYS: Barack Obama floods the airwaves -- or at least the broadcast channels -- with a 30-minute infomercial/political ad. The last man to do such a thing? Ross Perot, way back in 1992.