$14 Million Drop in Tax Revenue Will Force Cuts

The school system faces a $7.5 million deficit for the current fiscal year.

The new funds have gone toward a wide array of services, including libraries, public safety, and environmental and affordable housing initiatives, officials said. The county has about 3,700 employees.

In conversations with staff members, Carlee said, he is trying to strike a balance that is neither alarming nor complacent. Whatever happens, he's telling them, it will probably feel worse than it is.

"It's going to feel like the glass is more than half empty, when in reality, the glass is 90 to 95 percent full. We've just been through eight years when the cup runneth over," Carlee said.

Carlee said a combination of spending cuts and tax rate increases will probably be necessary, though he would not say which programs might be cut and how much taxes might go up. He said everything, including public safety, is on the table. Those are ultimately decisions for the County Board, although his recommendations have significant influence.

"There are things you can do in good times that you can't do in lean times," he said. "We will have to downsize."

To make up for this fiscal year's shortfall of $14 million, the county has implemented a hiring freeze and is considering staff reductions. Officials are targeting overtime, travel, training, technology expenses, supplies and serving food at events, Carlee said.

More significant for Arlington is what happens in the broader economy, he said. Budget changes are "normal stuff."

"The larger stuff that's going on on the national and international level, I don't know where that's headed," Carlee said. "That's what gives me the anxiety."