Counting on Colorado

Below the level of presidential races, Democrats have made steady progress in recent elections. Ritter, a former Denver district attorney, captured the governorship from Republicans two years ago, and Democrats control both houses of the state legislature.

Democrats already hold one Se nate seat and are overwhelmingly favored to pick up the open seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Wayne Allard. In a sign of how the race between Democratic Rep. Mark Udall and former Republican congressman Bob Schaffer is trending, the National Republican Senatorial Committee decided late last week to pull out of the race.

In the House, Democrats picked up the swing 7th Congressional District two years ago and are battling to add the seat in the 4th Congressional District, held by embattled Republican Rep. Marilyn Musgrave.

Changes in party registration underscore the shifting fortunes of the two parties. Four years ago, when President Bush was winning the state over Sen. John F. Kerry by 52 percent to 47 percent, registered Republicans outnumbered registered Democrats by 177,500 voters. The latest figures from the Colorado secretary of state's office show that the gap has been narrowed to 11,416 voters. Unaffiliated voters, a key Obama target, make up about a third of the electorate.

Some of these shifts represent organic changes brought on by the arrival of new voters from other states and a growing Latino population. But the Obama campaign systematically worked to expand the electorate, devoting much of the summer here to registration drives that have clearly paid dividends.

The campaign trained volunteers for registration duty and sent them into areas likely to produce new Democratic voters: college campuses, Latino communities, African American neighborhoods and areas with younger voters. Today, there are more registered voters younger than 30 than there are older than 61, according to figures compiled by the secretary of state's office.

"We started registering voters as soon as we hit the ground," said Anne Filipic, the general-election director for Obama's Colorado operation. "That was a big focus of ours throughout the summer."

Beyond that, the Obama campaign sought to neutralize the GOP's historic advantage in the use of mail-in, early and absentee voting. Four years ago, nearly half the state's voters cast their ballots before Election Day, with Republicans far outpacing Democrats. This year, as much as 60 percent of the state could vote early.

On Friday, Obama's campaign reported that it is running about even with the Republicans in mail-in ballots returned. If current patterns hold, McCain would have to win decisively among those who cast their votes on Nov. 4 to win the state, a difficult proposition based on Republicans' past performance here.

Both campaigns are competing hard. In addition to the McCain and Obama visits this weekend, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, McCain's running mate, campaigned in the state last week and drew big crowds. Obama's running mate, Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr., was here a few days later. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton held an Obama rally late Friday, and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D) was here Saturday.

McCain's headquarters in Centennial pulsated with energy Thursday afternoon, filled with young mothers making phone calls on behalf of the campaign. Palin has helped motivate the base, and GOP strategists here say voters in Colorado are decidedly more conservative than Obama in their views on social and economic issues.

Craig Goldman, the McCain regional campaign manager who oversees Colorado, said he has confidence in the GOP operation that has delivered in the past. "It's a proven commodity," he said. "It happened in 2000. It happened in '04. We know it can happen in '08. We know who our voters are. It's our job to turn them out."

Republicans have surprised Democrats in the closing days of past elections, one reason Obama campaign officials and their Democratic allies are taking nothing for granted. But McCain is fighting not only against the burden of an unpopular president and reaction to the economic meltdown but also against an opponent with overwhelming resources. Democrats hope that combination will complete the political transformation of this state.