The Endgame in Florida

Then came the collapse of the stock market, which had an especially dramatic effect here. "You have seniors who are living what I call 'no-margin-for-error lives,' " Castellanos said. "The slightest tremor in their lives just rocks them. . . . When this economic meltdown occurred, you saw a lot of seniors move. "

But even before the financial crisis, said David Axelrod, Obama's top strategist, Florida's particular economic problems were already moving younger families Obama's way, too. "While the whole country is struggling, Florida has felt the sting of the economic downturn even more," he said, citing job losses and the state's large home-foreclosure problem. "People will tolerate only so much red ink in their own lives."

Wasserman Schultz argued that the state's image as a haven for retirees leads outsiders to underestimate the importance of the "surge of working families" into Florida in recent years. Rep. Kathy Castor, a Democrat who represents Tampa, said Obama's economic arguments have found resonance in her "diverse working-class" district, particularly his emphasis on expanding health coverage and his criticisms of McCain's support for partially privatizing Social Security.

In the face of these pressures, even Republican bastions are starting to crumble. The state's large Cuban American electorate is a case in point. Castellanos, himself Cuban American, said that while older immigrants from Cuba will continue to vote Republican, younger Cuban Americans are now open to the Democrats and Obama.

McCain may yet hang on to Florida. But the fact that he is struggling so hard, so late, is a sign of how Obama's organizational and fundraising prowess has changed the nation's political map and how drastically the economic crisis could alter the contours of American politics.

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