Iraq Security Pact Highlights Battle Between U.S., Iran

With provincial elections looming early next year, Maliki is trying to position his party to compete in the south, analysts say.

If Maliki pushes the U.S.-Iraq security agreement through parliament without support from his Shiite partners, "the Iranians will turn his life into hell. He will have no chance of winning in the south," Attiyah, the political analyst, said.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said the Iraqi people have a "duty" to resist the Americans. The Iranian parliament speaker, Ali Larijani, warned of "unpleasant impacts" if Iraq signs the deal. And a senior Iranian cleric with ties to Iraq's Shiites, Ayatollah Kadhim al-Husseini al-Haeri, has pronounced the accord "haram," or forbidden under Islam.

U.S. officials have fought back, warning Iraq that if there is no agreement, the American military may be forced to shut down its operations when a United Nations mandate expires at year's end. That could cause "losses of great significance" for Iraq's security, said Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

As neighbors, Iran and Iraq have a natural interest in maintaining political and economic ties. Iran also has goals vital to its national interest: preventing the rise of another Sunni dictatorship in Iraq, and limiting the United States' ability to use Iraq as a launchpad for attacks, analysts say. The United States has not ruled out a military strike in Iran, which it labels a sponsor of terrorism.

Iran had little influence in Iraq until the U.S.-led invasion in 2003. Nervous about support for Iran's Islamic revolution, Hussein's government had banned Dawa and had executed thousands of Shiites suspected of belonging to it.

After Hussein's ouster, Iranians flocked to Shiite shrines in Iraq, and Iraqis suddenly had access to satellite dishes that brought news about their neighboring country. Shiite parties returned from exile to fill the power vacuum created when Hussein's Baath Party was outlawed, winning the U.S.-sponsored elections.

"Iran's primary mode of influence in Iraq is to maintain strong ties to friendly Iraqi political parties. It is entirely possible that in five years, Iran will have more influence in Baghdad than the United States," said a recent report by Col. Joseph Felter and Brian Fishman of the Combating Terrorism Center at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point.

The report criticized U.S. policymakers for concentrating on Iranian training and weapons shipments for Iraqi militias instead of Tehran's broader political efforts.

"The strategic focus on Iran's lethal aid to Iraqi militias -- at the expense of countering its overall power projection strategy -- may result in a major U.S. policy failure," the paper said.

Iran's influence with militant groups has made it a player in Iraqi affairs, analysts say. Last spring, for example, the Iranians brokered a cease-fire after the Iraqi military, with U.S. assistance, conducted an offensive in the southern city of Basra. At the time, the city was largely controlled by the followers of radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.

"Maliki gained a lot of strength" after the offensive, Attiyah said. "But you have to notice, what happened in Basra could not have been achieved without Iranian help. It was not only American help."