Calling the Vote Before the Ballots Have Been Cast

"We . . . can't predict," warns pollster John Zogby, who was burned in 2004. (Associated Press)

"The media still misunderstand and, to a great degree, still misrepresent polls," veteran pollster John Zogby says. "It's a cliche, but what we offer is a snapshot in time. We don't predict, can't predict." He says the greatest differences among pollsters are the way they select and weight their voter samples. Zogby, for instance, reports figures only for likely voters -- which requires projections based on turnout models -- while others include all registered voters or all adults.

Polls have led journalists astray before. As recently as the middle of last December, Hillary Clinton led Obama by 30 points in a Post poll, while Rudy Giuliani was the GOP front-runner. Weeks later, the polls led many pundits to predict that Clinton would lose the New Hampshire primary, which would leave the former first lady's campaign "gasping for breath," as The Post put it on the morning of the primary. Clinton won and revived her candidacy.

Pack journalism also plays a role. When McCain ran into fundraising and staffing problems in the summer of 2007, virtually the entire press corps agreed that his chances of winning the GOP nomination were nil.

Critics, including many conservatives, say the media have been too easy on Obama, and bias cannot be discounted as a factor. A study by the Project for Excellence in Journalism found that from the end of the conventions through the debates, McCain's coverage was more than three times as negative than Obama's.

Journalists say it would be a disservice to readers and viewers to ignore, in the name of balance, the trends that prompted even former White House aide Karl Rove to declare Sunday on Fox News that McCain has "got a very steep hill to climb."

"The Republican nominee's path to the presidency is now extremely precarious and may depend on something unexpected taking control of a contest that appears to have swung hard toward Barack Obama," Dan Balz wrote in The Post on Friday.

The Boston Globe's Scott Helman reported Sunday that "there is an unmistakable sense among Obama's aides, many supporters, pundits, and people around the nation that, barring something dramatic, he will be the 44th president of the United States," but quickly questioned whether "the flock of polls that show Obama well ahead [are] simply wrong, as polls sometimes are." In the Times, Adam Nagourney took pains to note last week that McCain's aides, "as well as some outside Republicans and even a few Democrats, argue that he still has a viable path to victory."

The punditry about Palin also sends a not-so-subtle signal. New Republic columnists have been arguing about whether the Alaska governor will win the GOP nomination in 2012. Others in the media have given a megaphone to unnamed sources to attack or defend Palin without having their names attached. Politico quoted an unnamed Palin ally as saying that she feels "completely mismanaged and mishandled and ill-advised" by campaign officials. CNN quoted an unnamed McCain adviser as calling Palin a "diva." The underlying assumption is that blame must be parceled out for the ticket's defeat next week.

Still, cautionary tales abound. On the eve of the 2004 election, Zogby predicted that John Kerry would beat President Bush, a move he now attributes to "hubris and naivete."

After Bush won, Zogby says, "I wasn't in a fetal position, but I vowed I wouldn't do that again. And I haven't."