Yes, Virginia, the Old Dominion Can and Does Lean Democratic

RICHMOND -- One year before voters go to the polls to elect a new governor, Virginia Democrats appear well positioned to stay in power and continue their winning streak in major state races, according to a new Washington Post poll.

In one of the first surveys to explore the 2009 political landscape, Democrats have a 17-point advantage when voters are asked which party they want to win the governor's race.

The question, included in a Washington Poll on the presidential race published Monday, highlights the challenges facing Republicans as more Virginia voters identify themselves as Democrats and independents.

Of registered voters, 48 percent prefer a Democratic governor vs. 31 percent who want a Republican.

According to the survey, a generic Democratic gubernatorial nominee starts the year with the same coalition of support that led to the election as governor of Mark R. Warner (D) in 2001 and Timothy M. Kaine (D) in 2005.

The survey, which shows voters in Northern Virginia favoring Democrats by 57 percent to 25 percent, sets the stage for another hard-fought political contest in the Old Dominion next year.

Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell is running unopposed for the Republican nomination for governor.

But for the first time since 1985, Democrats are girding for a primary fight to decide their nominee. Del. Brian J. Moran (Alexandria) and state Sen. R. Creigh Deeds, who narrowly lost to McDonnell in the 2005 attorney general's race, have announced they plan to run. Terry McAuliffe, a former chairman of the Democratic National Committee and adviser to Bill and Hillary Rodham Clinton, is also considering a run.

The nomination is up for grabs in a three-way fight, according to the poll. When self-identified Democrats and independents who lean Democratic were asked which candidate they prefer as the nominee, 16 percent named Moran, 12 percent McAuliffe and 11 percent Deeds.

More than half the respondents said they were undecided. Moran's narrow advantage is within the margin of error. Only a small percentage of registered voters will turn out in the June primary, so it's hard to make any broad conclusions about the findings. In addition, the race will change dramatically once the candidates begin to campaign.

With McAuliffe and Moran living in Northern Virginia, the conventional wisdom is that Deeds benefits from a three-way fight for the nomination. But the poll finds the three candidates are separated by five percentage points or less in Hampton Roads, Richmond and the western part of the state.

In Northern Virginia, Moran has 22 percent of the vote and McAuliffe 12 percent. Deeds is drawing only 6 percent in Northern Virginia.