Yes, Virginia, the Old Dominion Can and Does Lean Democratic

Black voters and self-described liberals, who tend to vote in higher percentages in Democratic primaries, will likely play a key role in determining the nominee.

Moran holds an eight-point advantage over McAuliffe among African Americans. McAuliffe and Moran are tied among voters who identified themselves as liberals.

White men essentially split their votes among the three candidates, and Moran holds a seven-point advantage among white women. Deeds does best among moderate Democrats.

The survey, conducted Oct. 22 to 25, did not match McDonnell against any of the potential Democratic candidates.

Because he is likely running unopposed for the Republican nomination, McDonnell will be able to spend the winter and spring stockpiling money, organizing his campaign and developing a message for the fall, while the Democrats duke it out.

McDonnell, a former legislator who had a 21-year career in Army, has a broad résumé that will make him a formidable Republican candidate. But the poll suggests McDonnell, an unabashed social and economic conservative, could face a difficult political climate once a Democratic nominee is chosen.

Self-described independents say they prefer a Democrat to win the governor's race, by 40 percent to 25 percent. Female voters favor a Democrat by about 2 to 1, as do moderates.

Nearly 90 percent of African Americans want a Democratic governor, which is consistent with past statewide elections. The two parties are tied among white voters, a troubling sign for Republicans, who need to win this group by a big margin.

The huge showing in the poll for Democrats in Northern Virginia is a testament to the region's shifting demographics. It also might signal voter frustration with Republicans in Richmond over the lack of new revenue for transportation.

In Hampton Roads, where traffic is also a concern, voters prefer a Democratic governor by 54 percent to 32 percent. Even in the historically conservative Richmond and western Virginia areas, registered voters narrowly prefer a Democratic governor.

Conservatives overwhelmingly want Republicans to reclaim the governor's race. In addition, white evangelicals favor a Republican by 2 to 1.

In the 1990s, Republicans and white evangelicals made up a large enough share of the electorate to help elect two successive Republican governors, George Allen and James S. Gilmore III. But the number of Virginia voters identifying themselves as Republicans has steadily declined during President Bush's second term.

As McDonnell works to expand the Republican base next year, he starts with several advantages. McDonnell, whose home political base is Virginia Beach and who maintains extensive ties to the military veteran community, will probably perform far better in Hampton Roads than the nameless Republican asked about in the poll.

McDonnell, if elected, would also be Virginia's first Republican Catholic governor. Currently, white Catholics favor a Democratic governor by 46 percent to 31 percent.

McDonnell advisers think he will do better in Northern Virginia than other recent statewide Republican candidates.

Much can and will change over the next year, including a possible backlash against a new administration and Congress in Washington. Republicans, though, might want to take note of a similar Virginia poll conducted by The Washington Post, the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation and Harvard University in summer 2007.

That poll found that four in 10 Virginia voters wanted the next president to be a Democrat, compared with 33 percent who said they favor a Republican. At the time, Republicans scoffed at the suggestion that Virginia, which last voted for a Democratic presidential nominee in 1964, could be up for grabs in this year's presidential race.

But The Washington Post poll published Monday showed Democrat Barack Obama with an eight-point lead over Republican John McCain in Virginia, 52 percent to 44 percent.

Polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.